Posted on 07/06/2009 7:43:54 AM PDT by SvenWaring
Black swans really didn’t swim into global consciousness until the late summer of 2008 when the frazzled pieces of the global economy completely frayed, like the rope holding a piano dangling above a busy city street in an old silent film.
But, Nassim Taleb had spotted the creature in 2007, writing about how sudden, outlying events affect the financial markets in Black Swan, the Impact of the Highly Improbable. He mentions September 11 and stock market crashes as Black Swan-type events.
Whether any of the events were truly unpredictable–or just extremely complex, isn’t the point of this piece. What intrigues me now is, if we accept the premise that a Black Swan is unpredictable, can a reverse Black Swan be created?
In other worlds, if a series of seemingly random and unconnected events are behind a stock market crash, it would be foolhardy to believe that a group of government officials could somehow engineer a stock market rally.
(Excerpt) Read more at onlineinvestingai.com ...
The other half of the Black Swan that is not mentioned in this definition is that, in hindsight, all the markers were there to create the Black Swan. The meltdown may have been a Black Swan but, in hindsight, we know exactly how it happened. It was called the Community Reinvestment Act, aided and abetted by the corrupt individuals (the "Bezzle" is always involved) at Fannie and Freddie.
The Community Reinvestment Act was probably one of the factors, but not the only factor.
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