A New Look at the Middle East Peace Process

Beyond the Cusp ^ | April 18, 2009 | Beyond the Cusp

[bsaunders]

I always fear when writing on the Middle East Peace Process that I may wake up in a catatonic state, moribund, bereft of even a glimmer of life, resembling this so called Peace Process. The only thing worse than writing an article on the newest and greatest initiative is having to listen to the optimistic exuberance touting the great new wisdom inspiring this revolutionary, breakthrough idea. You just know the plan will end up mired, bent, twisted, and mutilated within a next few weeks until it bears no resemblance to the shiny new idea so recently touted. Finally, we have a new idea that may need to be watched, not because it will lead to peace, but it will have a different end just the same. It seems President Obama is going to try a drastically new approach.

The first signs that President Obama was taking a new approach to the Palestinian Israeli peace came a few weeks back. General Ashkenazi, Israeli IDF Chief of Staff, was scheduled to meet with senior members of the new Obama Administration. His visit had been set up before the inauguration with President Bush’s Administration. General Ashkenazi came bearing new intelligence about the Iranian nuclear program and was supposed to discuss options and try to synchronize the approach to be taken by Israel to the new direction being implemented by President Obama. The General received a rude awakening as to the new Obama Middle East Policies. He was shunted and ignored by every single top-level member of President Obama’s staff from the State Department, Defense Department, and Presidential staff. He was finally allowed to meet with a junior State Department official who refused to discuss Iran, wishing only to talk about the formation of a Palestinian State. When General Ashkenazi attempted to leave the Israeli intelligence report, he was refused telling him the Administration had no need or use of anything Israel has about Iran and to only worry about how Israel could assist in establishing a Palestinian State and supporting said state to assure its well-being.

As if this was not enough of an insult, we have learned that President Obama and his Administration have cancelled all meetings with Prime Minister Netanyahu when he visits the United States early next month. The Prime Minister has been told that all doors will remain closed to his Government, as they are not welcome by President Obama. The Israeli Prime Minister was coming to address the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, after which he was to meet with Obama Administration people, as has been the custom in years past. Now, Rahm Emanuel, Obama’s Chief of Staff and considered to be strongly pro-Israel, has informed Prime Minister Netanyahu’s people that Israel had "better get ready to evacuate the West Bank" if they expect to get any assistance from Washington on the Iranian situation. Obama has additionally let it be known that his Administration does not plan to continue with the Bush policy of hosting Israeli prime ministers whenever they showed up in town. It is hard not to feel the sudden severe drop in temperature in relations between the two new Administrations. This reaction to the election of Prime Minister Netanyahu is seemingly more severe than when President Clinton’s campaign election staffers such as James Carville went to Israel to assist the campaign of Ehud Barak against Benjamin Netanyahu in the 1999 Israeli elections.

In related news, President Obama has made clear through statements that all Israeli settlements beyond the pre-1967 War borders must be dismantled and their residents moved back within the Green Line. This presumably includes all the newer suburbs in and around Jerusalem that had been assumed Israel would hold within slightly modified borders and exchange some land well south of Jerusalem as compensation.

On another front developing in the United States Israel front are the future commitments and promises of funding of military projects. There have been rumblings that the United States will pull funding their part of the Arrow-3 anti-missile system and instead offer Israel the American SM-3 system used by the United States Navy. Israel has been further informed that changes in the level of manufacture for the F35 Joint Strike Fighter might result in a considerably higher price tag than Israel and the previous Administration had agreed upon. After meeting with delegation of US senators, Defense Minister Ehud Barak told a meeting of senior Israelis that, “"we have joint projects with them (US); I'm not talking about the Iron Dome missile defense system, but about defense against long-range missiles. But due to the economic crisis in the US, they are cutting budgets and want to allocate some of funds toward purely American projects that better suit the US' needs." Supposing the Arrow 3 Project is closed down, this will have wider ranging affects than simply Israel having to use off-the-shelf United States Navy munitions systems, it would also close down a very crucial sector of the Israeli anti-rocket/missile research and development programs. So, this would have military, research, and economic ramifications on Israel and reach deeper levels of Israeli concerns.

Adding these new developments with President Obama’s new softer approach to Iran, it is obvious Israel has some serious and tangible concerns that go deeper than simply the Palestinian situation. And on the Palestinian situation, even there the situation has changed. It is evident that President Obama is determined to have a peace agreement with two states, one Israeli and one Palestinian, living together side-by-side. Obama is dead set to assure that the Palestinian State will consist of every inch of the occupied West Bank, Gaza, Jerusalem, the Temple Mount, and the Golan Heights thrown in for good measure and as payment to Syria to renew relations. Obama has made it clear that he will be willing to use any and all means necessary to force this peace into fruition. Since making demands upon the Palestinians never brings any changes to advance the Peace Process as they have yet to even honor the very first pledge made by Yasser Arafat, namely to remove the call to eradicate Israel from the Fatah Constitution. Since the Palestinians cannot be forced to compromise, that only leaves one party that concessions can be wrung from, Israel. This has met with tacit approval as the way and means to reach the desired peace, thus Israel will be forced against the wall and will need to make a difficult decision, whether to cave to Obama’s demands and surrender everything or to refuse and thus bring United States/Israeli relations to a violent and crashing close. It is quite possible that should President Obama push Israel too fast or too hard, then Israel may just take her leave and try to make it on her own. This may even be the preferred move and the best for Israel in the end once their economy and community get past the initial shock. Things are about to get very interesting, in a crashing roller coaster kind of way.

Beyond the Cusp

[guitarplayer1953]

Here is what I would tell BO if I was the PM of Israel. We will give up land that we won in a war if you will give up land to that you have won in a war. Or more bluntly Give back all the land that you took in the US Mexico war and then we will talk about giving up lands too.