In the FWIW department, Debka notes that AQ leadership has bugged out of Iraa and into Lebanon - could be some truth in this reporting.
OPINION:
It does seem that jihadis are heading for:
1. Afghanistan
2. Somalia
I know the Lebanon area does have Hezbollah and Hezbollah is in Iraq, too; so maybe some of them that haven’t been captured are heading for Lebanon, but I’m just speculating.