Virginia by the numbers

Much has been made of the newly registered northern Virginia voters being a big part of the supposed shift in voter ID. As has been previously mentioned, the 2004 ID on election day was 39R-35D-26I, in 2006 it was 38R-35D-27I. But almost all of the state polling done recently shows Dems with an average lead of 8-13% voter ID. SO what, in the the eyes of these polling companies, would lead them to make such a dramatic assumption?

72% of all voters were white, which voted for Bush 68-32%. 21% were black, which voted for Kerry 87-12%. Among all registered voters, turnout was 71% in a state that wasn't seriously contested, although some polls showed Kerry within 3 points late.

The first issue addressed will be black turnout. While it is difficult to determine how many blacks are registered to vote in VA, we know from census data that they make up 19.9% of the population. They made up 21% of the electorate which would indicate already high black turnout. An increase in turnout as well as a higher percentage of the vote, which 0bama is surely to get, could give 0bama an additional 200,000 votes, at most. This is based on the fact that the number of overall registered voters has increased by 374,171,or 8.2%, and the fact that blacks voted as a higher percentage than they make up in the overall population.

The second point is with regard to northern Virginia. Northern VA made up 32.4% of registered voters in 2004. In 2008 they make up 32.8%, essentially the same number. So it is difficult to see why pollsters are so obsessed with Northern VA when they still represent only a third of the state and already vote at a 60/40 Dem split.

Finally, here is a list of where most of the new registrations have come from, based on percentage that voted for Kerry: 71,466 new voters in counties Kerry got over 50%. 104,805 in counties where Kerry got between 40-50%. And 109,243 in counties where Kerry got less than 40%.

In conclusion, unless one is to assume that the vast majority of new voters from all over the state are Dems, or that the vast majority of Dems did not vote in a state that had over 70% turnout overall, or that black voters will vote at a signifigantly higher percentage than their white counterparts, it is extremely difficult to see how the pollsters are coming up with the voter ID numbers. VA still looks like McCain by at least 3 points in my estimation.

This happens in every major Virginia race, though not always to this degree. The Democrat always overpolls. I think it's because a lot of media liberals live in NOVA. They look around and see this sprawling, heavily congested, populated area and assume it must dominate the state the way Detroit dominates Michigan, or NYC dominates New York state.

But it doesn't. First of all, there's another mass population center of roughly equal size in the Tidewater area. There are a lot of ‘Rat voting blacks there in Norfolk & Portsmouth, but Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Newport News, etc. provide plenty of military and middle class GOP margins. Second, there's the Richmond area, where the heavily GOP suburbs cancel out the black/gov. employee city vote. Then there are a ton of small towns, rural areas, and modest sized cities (Roanoke, Lynchburg) which roll up big GOP margins. These areas are sparsely populated compared to the big urban areas, but not as sparsely populated as, say, Northern Michigan or the Adirondacks in New York. All those little Virginia towns and moderate sized cities add up.

So NOVA, while certainly significant, and definitely making Virginia more competitive than a state like Alabama, isn't the overriding factor that big population centers are in numerous northern states. But I think a lot of media liberals can't imagine that the NOVA area could possibly be outvoted by the rest of the state. In all likelihood, they've never even been to the rest of the state, and regard it as just a few mountain hillbillies who can't possibly compete with the sophisticates in Arlington & Alexandria (you know, the ones who elect Jim “IQ of a truckload of gravel” Moran to Congress).

And even in NOVA, the 'Rat candidate usually wins about two-to-one. That's a wide margin, but not nearly the margins 'Rats run up in big population centers elsewhere, places like Detroit, Boston, Philly, NYC, Chicago, the Bay Area, and so forth where the 'Rats can win by five-to-one or higher. That's because there are quite a few Pentagon employees there, plus a decent number of folks whose families trace back to the old pre-sprawl days and they vote just like the rest of Virginia.

I can only assume that the internals polling by McCain shows us with a decent healthy win, same as NC and maybe Indiana.

I still believe my state will go for McCain by 5 points and that is Florida.

so we have PA and NH on the east coast, PA will be tight and if we are just losing it I expect McCain to do an appeal and get rid of those voters who voted numerous times., same as MO

we take NH and PA plus hold VA,FL,MO then I’ll be dancing inthe street well before CA closes

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