Mac might lose CO and VA but keep OH, FL, and take PENN. If so, can he win?
yes
Yes. The 2004 election was as follows ...
Bush — 286 Electoral Votes
Kerry — 251 Electoral Votes
Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia have a combined 37 Electoral votes. Pennsylvania has 21 Electoral Votes.
If Obama wins all four of those, but loses PA (all other states remaining the same as 2004) — the election looks like this ...
McCain — 272
Obama — 267
Word is, McCain may win New Hampshire (4). And, there’s a solid chance of him holding Colorado (9) or Virginia (13).
Basically, the whole elections rides on PA. If Mac can take PA, the whole map changes, and Obama MUST win (1) ALL of Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico and Nevada AND (2) either Ohio or Florida.
H
“Mac might lose CO and VA but keep OH, FL, and take PENN. If so, can he win?”
Yes, if Mac takes OH, FL, and PA, he could lose CO, VA, AND IA and NH and still win (274 electoral votes).