[tlb]

>>> Drilling into this poll, what do you find in the internals? 55% Democrat, 35% Republican! So one pollster has effectively spotted Obama a TWENTY-POINT LEAD

Hard to know what to make of this fellow’s analysis since he makes so much of West Virginia’s numbers. As I understand it, WVa DOES have about a 2 to 1 democrat over republican voter registration base. Do people think every state has to be analyzed on the basis of a 50-50 split?

Democrat governor, 2 dem senators, 3 or 4 dem congressmen to one republican, most if not all state officers are dem, etc.

I really wouldn’t expect WVa to go for Obama but this isn’t the argument to say it won’t. Sloppy analysis.

[grey_whiskers]

If Obama cannot win by twenty points, when there are twenty percent more Dems than Pubbies, that is a sign that his base is not there.

And if you look, you can find similar discrepancies in other polls -- e.g. the Washington Post-ABC News Poll which had Obama up by 9% nationally sampled 52% Democrats and 38% Republicans. That is inconsistent with the most recent election results nationwide at the Presidential level.

Cheers!