Obama/Biden 217 McCain/Palin 216 Toss Up 105

Real Clear Politics ^ | 11 SEPT 2008 | Real Clear Politics

[davidosborne]

WOW... what a shift... and it is only going to get better for Sarah Palin

TOWARD VICTORY !!!

[CE2949BB]

MN: Most of my Dem family members up in MN are going to vote for McCain/Palin. I’ve got hope for it this year.

DC: It’s lost. No hope.

[KarlInOhio]

Which states split their electoral votes? I think it may be Maine, Nebraska and Colorado?

Just Maine and Nebraska. Colorado voted against spliting its vote proportional to its popular vote.

[RabidBartender]

We lose a 269-269 tie. I read somewhere on FR this morning that Dems will likely have 27 state votes to 21 Rep ones (with Kansas and 1 other state tied).

[Kevmo]

Momentum is on McCain/Palin. It’s theirs to lose.

[1035rep]

Looks like we hold all the states President Bush won and McCain is now ahead in Michigan. Obama’s lead in Wisconsin has dwindled from 11 down to 3. I say we take that too :) Obama is having trouble holding the blue states. This election will be interesting.

[netmilsmom]

A friend of mine, who is married to a union man, stated that while many of his friends say they will vote Obama, they are bigotted old Pollacks (I’m Polish too) who would never vote for a black man.

So will go MI.

[1035rep]

Calling NM for Hussein may be a premature evaluation...

Especially since McCain is ahead in New Mexico,

[wideawake]

I don’t understand how IN is a tossup. President Bush won it by 20 points last time.

[normy]

New Mexico has 3 polls shown. 2 are for McCain averaging 3 points a piece. The CNN/Time poll is +13 for 0bama. I suspect the next poll will give McCain the edge in that state.

[JohnnyZ]

I don’t understand how IN is a tossup. President Bush won it by 20 points last time.

It's not actually a tossup, but it'll be closer if only due to having Obama and the Chicago media market right next door, plus increased black turnout.

[1035rep]

I agree and the CNN poll was in August. A lot has changed since then.

[puroresu]

I don’t understand how IN is a tossup. President Bush won it by 20 points last time.

There must have been a couple of outlier polls there. No way will Obama carry Indiana. It's only gone 'Rat once since the height of the New Deal (LBJ's 1964 landslide).

I don't think Virginia's a toss-up, either. The DC suburbs have filled up with dependent people and transplanted New Yorkers, but that won't be nearly enough to cancel out the tide of Palin voters in the rest of the state.

[GloriaJane]

[davidosborne]

:)

[jaydubya2]

Northern Indiana, Lake, St.Joe, and some of Porter co are toss ups (maybe), but I don’t see the rest of IN going blue.

[JohnnyZ]

I'm watching:

Colorado, New Mexico

Minnesota, Wisconsin, MICHIGAN, Pennsylvania

New Hampshire, Virginia

I think Michigan is the key.

[word_warrior_bob]

It’s over for Øbama.

EVERY trend is Republican, it’s not going to be close, Obama will be lucky to win 10 states.

McCain is in “live girl, dead boy” territory. There will be no more good polling news for Øbama from here on in, maybe a day or 2 of a comeback, but it will be a steady slide into McGovernland for the Messiah.

[E.G.C.]

BTTT

[Darren McCarty]

It’s not over yet for Bacrock. If they have a shot at stealing the election, they’ll do their best to do it.

[davidosborne]

that is how I see it as well.. many states that were SOLID Obama are now “leaning Obama” -— and will soon be “leaning McCain” -— LOL !!

TOWARD VICTORY !!