Posted on 06/20/2008 12:30:51 PM PDT by neverdem
The conventional punditry on McCain's call to end the ban on offshore oil exploration has focused on whether President Bush's suppport for the idea will hurt McCain in the fall. But that could change, and soon, if what's happened in just the past few days develops into a real trend:
Sen. Jim Webb announced he now supports exploration off the coast of Virginia.
Ex-Gov. Mark Warner also supports opening up the Virginia coastline to possible drilling.
Meanwhile, the latest Gallup survey shows Democrats are split on offshore drilling, with 39% in support while 59% still oppose.
Better yet, it's an issue where independents side with the GOP, although the margins are not so wide (80% in favor vs. 56%). Overall, Americans favor opening up U.S. coastal waters by a 57% to 41%.
Now, what does this issue remind you of? How about gun control in the late 1990s?
Arguably the anti-gun movement's greatest victory was the 1994 Scary-Looking Gun Act... er, Assault Weapons Ban. Through the 1990s, crime declined steadily, and it had nothing to do with assault weapons or the ban. State gun laws stayed the same or got better. Americans' support for gun freedom started to tick upward. The 2007 Virginia Tech massacre generated more questions from the left about their own priorities than any actual calls for greater restrictions.
Meanwhile Democrats, who had traditionally taken a dim view of the Second Amendment, started to change their minds. By 2000, many Democrats believed that Gore's opposition to guns cost him in rural areas. When Mark Warner ran for governor in 2002, he gladly counted "Sportsmen for Warner" among his supporters. And after John Kerry lost in 2004, Chris Bowers actually wrote this at MyDD:
There are two liberal issues that I think we should drop ... The first is gun control. Even though I have never owned a gun, and never intend to own a gun, this is an issue that has never resonated with me. Have any of our gun control laws reduced gun-related violence? Are there any further laws we could pass that would be more effective than just enforcing the laws we have? Forgive me if I sound a little NRA, but are guns really a major part of the problem with our violent society?
Small coincidence then that MyDD site founder (and Warner consultant) Jerome Armstrong wrote this yesterday:
The politics have changed, and I don't see the principle that guides Democrats to be unequivocally against offshore drilling for oil at this point. We are stuck on oil for a long time. Congressional Dems should adopt the position, include some safeguards, and alongside billions in funding for finding alternative fuel solutions, make it part of a long-term solution.
And so far, support for offshore exploration from Democrats is limited. Will Democrats continue to ignore a significant minority of their party who support it? If they don't, that's good news for John McCain. If they do, it might just be the next gun control.
P.S. To be sure, not all Republicans have joined McCain. Take for instance Gov. Schwarzenegger, who styles himself an environmentalist and, perhaps coincidentally, is also a supporter of gun cuntrol.
Note: Yesterday I covered the poor reception of Daily Kos' offshore drilling conspiracy theories on the social news site Digg, at Blog P.I.
IF they did that so that ALL USERS of gas or diesel would eventual have to confornt thios issue.. The democrats everywhere would be TOAST..
I'm talking when doing ANYTHING they change the subject to this issue.. CHANGE.. Change the subject.. Change the energy policy... CHANGE the price of fuel.. CHANGE the taxes on fuel of all kinds.. CHANGE CHANGE thats what I'm talking about CHANGE... CHANGE the party officials that created this problem.. republican OR democrat.. or even independant..
But Obama must be pressured heavily to oppose drilling anywhere, anytime, and for any reason. He must be pressured to oppose all steps for energy independence and anything that can be considered a step towards solving our problem. And he must be pressured to say this stuff in his campaign speeches repeatedly. The greens will be in ecstasy and there will be plenty of ammunition to use against him in his own speeches.
Now comes the hard part. McCain must pick up the ammunition and use it in large amounts, to beat Obama over the head on this as a campaign issue.
“Now comes the hard part. McCain must pick up the ammunition and use it in large amounts, to beat Obama over the head on this as a campaign issue.”
Okay, it’s Friday...uh, Sarge, I thought we were supposed to SHOOT ‘em with it, not BEAT ‘em with it...??
I'd like to see the pubbies talk about that more.
I read a story not long ago that we at one point started to develop shale oil, and as soon as they heard about it, Saudi Arabia cut the per barrel price of oil which encouraged us to pull the plug on that project. I wish I had the link, but that told me how “drill here, drill now” can and will have a fairly fast impact on the price of oil.
We are, but this is John McCain. If I can get him to beat his opponent with it instead of just sitting there staring at the ammunition, that is a MAJOR step in the right direction. Training him to SHOOT the stuff comes after we teach him to pick it up.
Yeah, yeah. He was a naval officer, but he was a pilot. He still needs to learn to use a rifle and ammo and that happens in steps. This is just one of those steps.
"Johnny, see all that stuff lying around your opponent? That is called ammo. Pick some of it up."
Last week, there was a caller to Rush that used to be some type of financial trader, and her view was that if we did lift the moratorium on offshore drilling, then the commodities traders/speculators would not be as gung ho about buying oil futures, and the price would go down. She thought it would go down significantly, IIRC. The point is that even SAYING we would begin drilling more domestically will have a psychological impact on the market, and would end a lot of this speculation that is running up prices.
Sen. Jim Webb announced he now supports exploration off the coast of Virginia.
Ex-Gov. Mark Warner also supports opening up the Virginia coastline to possible drilling.
Meanwhile, the latest Gallup survey shows Democrats are split on offshore drilling, with 39% in support while 59% still oppose.
Better yet, it's an issue where independents side with the GOP, although the margins are not so wide (80% in favor vs. 56%). Overall, Americans favor opening up U.S. coastal waters by a 57% to 41%.
Now, what does this issue remind you of? How about gun control in the late 1990s?
“Offshore Drilling” used to be a queer bar in Myrtle Beach.
uh, not that I knew about it personally, or anything. Nope. Not me. noooosirreeeee. Wemins my thing! Yep. Gals, love them gals.
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