Posted on 05/31/2008 2:25:12 PM PDT by blogsforthompson.com
Here are the 2008 Electoral Vote Projection Maps and State Poll Average Charts for Saturday, May 31, 2008:
John McCain leads Barack Obama 236-216 on the 50-Day Average Electoral Map (Based on a 50-Day Avg. of State Polls). A total of 86 votes remain in the "tossup" category.
Barack Obama leads John McCain 251-238 on the 15-Day Average Electoral Map (Based on a 15-Day Avg. of State Polls). A total of 49 votes remain in the "tossup" category. Clearly the trend has been in Obama's favor in terms of state polls over the last two weeks. The one huge exception has been Michigan which is in McCain's column on the 15-Day Avg. on the strength of two recent polls. If that holds it would be huge for McCain and would not bode well for Obama. . .
Don't forget to check out the charts at the bottom of the page for Last 50-Days of State Polls, 15 and 50-Day Averages of National Polls, and the Last 50-Days of National Polls. . .
(Excerpt) Read more at electoralprojection.blogspot.com ...
When gas prices hit $4/gallon, I heard many Hillary supporters who swore they would vote for McCain say that they changed their mind - they will hold their nose and vote for Obama.
Still, it’s a long way until November. But the prices of food and gas (expected to continue to increase) are driving people to vote for Obama. They don’t care about associations, idealogies, capital gains tax, increase in taxes, controversy out the wazoo - none of it. When I heard some Republicans talking this way recently, I became less than confident about November, particularly since no one seems to remember that the change the Dems promised in 2006 never came to fruition (or if it did, I’m oblivious).
Demand is not decreasing and we are near capacity in production - ready supply is tight and only getting tighter. With the inflows of cash from institutional investors (hedge funds, insurance companies, etc...) continuing to buy up and all the oil and gas contracts, we are sure to see $6 to $8 gas this year.
Obama will have to show what he’d do to lower gas prices.
If you know the price of fuel in the future you should not be posting on FR, you should be making billions as a speculator.
The stupidity of Hillary voters will never amaze me.
How McCain is reponsible for high fuel prices and how Obama will lower prices is far from clear.
And yes demand is decreasing.
Governments in Asia in particular that subsidize the price of fuel are being squeezed.
Americans have lowered demand.
Up to this point it has not affected prices becuase Asia has not seen significant decreases in demand.
And speculators are driving up overall demand.
But this cannot last forever.
Unless speculators and subsidizing governments have unlimited budgets to keep paying higher and higher prices it eventually will decrease demand.
The US needs to get the Iraq oil well production up to full production and have 100 percent of the output sent to America to help pay back the investment we have made to free them from Saddam and bring democracy to Iraq.
I think Asia has the ability to continue subsidizing fuel through the summer and into the fall with ease. Market prices may slightly contract when the speculators sell their positions (fill orders, take profits and provide liquidity) but at the same time institutional investors will continue to buy the contracts and hold - never taking delivery, keeping market prices high.
As for demand, we (developed countries) are in the no positions to decrease demand for fuel without dramatically changing our way of life. However, developing countries can have an effect but only at the cost of suspending their development. This won’t happen if the value of their currencies continues to increase.
I don’t see how any presidential candidate can have any influence on this process. In the long-term, supply and demand will correct and prices will settle near equilibrium but in the short-term prices will remain high and may have an effect on election results. I doubt Obama, Clinton, McCain or most American understand any of this and the candidates will continue to craft their messages playing on people’s emotions and frustrations.
Assuming you're correct, be prepared for an Obama presidency and both houses of Congress with large Democrat majorities. We will be in for a rough four years, far worse than the Clinton or Carter administrations.
Where did this blog go to? I can’t find it.
Only for those who value common sense and logic. For the rest (the majority of the electorate), it is enough that he will say he will "do something" about it.
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