Posted on 02/01/2008 7:31:58 PM PST by Richard Kimball
Please understand that this is not about what should be. It's my observation about what is happening.
Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Ann Coulter and James Dobson have all come out not so much for Mitt Romney, but against John McCain. They’re placing a huge bet, and it will affect the Republican Party and conservatism for the next generation. I believe this is a watershed moment in party history, at least as important as the emergence of Ronald Reagan.
Ronald Reagan realigned the political parties. He managed to create a coalition of the existing left/moderate Republican hierarchy (the country club Republicans) while forming a new coalition of voters who had previously been unaligned or registered as Democrats. This coalition was comprised of religious and social conservatives, economic conservatives and small government libertarians. As much as anything else, his brilliance was about the fact that he was able to keep this coalition together. In the twenty years since Reagan left office, the coalition has cracked sometimes, but now it is rent asunder.
John McCain is not the choice of the party’s conservative wing. However, he has continued to win primaries. Some of these victories are because of crossover votes from independents and Democrats. One line of thought is that these people are simply crossing over to give McCain primary victories while planning to vote for Hillary or Obama in the general election. I do not believe this is true. In a tightly contested Democratic primary, why would committed Democrats cross over? It would make sense if the Democratic primary were settled, but not in this situation. There is little difference in the candidate platforms between Obama and Hillary. Both are socialists. The Democratic race has become about identity politics and personalities. Many weak Democrats and independents are, I believe, uncomfortable with this situation, and are really considering changing parties.
Karl Rove once said about disgruntled conservatives, “Where are they going to go?” In 2006 they went nowhere. They stayed home and the Republicans got creamed. 2008 presents a much bigger risk to conservatives, and that’s why I think the four conservatives who have bet against McCain are betting not only their influence, but the influence of their constituencies in the future of the Republican party. In 1992, Pat Buchanan shattered the Reagan coalition. He had a lot of help from the first President Bush, and Ross Perot finished the job, but Buchanan was the initial architect. It wasn’t so much that Buchanan ran against a sitting president as the way he did it. Ronald Reagan ran against Gerald Ford in 1976 without damaging the party as a whole. Buchanan took discontent with Bush’s moderation and fanned it into an ugly party war. He attracted supporters, but alienated far more people than he attracted. When Buchanan left the party, most Republicans breathed a sigh of relief. As a whole, the party decided that it was better to have Buchanan outside the house throwing rocks, than inside. Buchanan went to Ross Perot’s old Reform Party, which immediately collapsed, because he did the same thing there that he did in the Republican Party. He alienated more people than he attracted. He lost all political influence, and became totally irrelevant. His supporters had no place to go. Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats believed that Pat and his supporters were worth the problems.
Today, the situation may be similar, but with a larger part of the Republican base. There is one difference, and that is that in 1992, Buchanan was the leader. This time, there is no leader. Limbaugh, Coulter, Dobson and Hannity are pundits and persuaders, not politicians. This time it is a more broad based discontent that is expressing itself without a prominent political figure to lead the charge or give voice to it. This base has essentially placed two bets. The first is a bad bet. They’re betting that their influence can knock McCain out in the primaries. I believe Florida turned the momentum to McCain, and that Romney is on the ropes. The other candidates are now only window dressing. The second bet is that McCain cannot win the general election without conservative support. This bet is for all the marbles, and conservatives are hoping McCain loses. If McCain loses and the Republicans lose seats in the House and Senate, the party will have to mend fences with conservatives. This means making concessions and more conservative candidates.
McCain is making a pitch to the conservatives by talking about military strength, constructionist Supreme Court Judges, limiting spending and reducing the size of government. If conservatives come back, even grudgingly, the showdown will be avoided. If these voters continue to reject McCain and sit home or write in third party candidates and McCain still wins, the disaffected voters are in big trouble.
Most of the party hierarchy is moderate to liberal. They have tolerated the conservatives because they need them to win. If McCain proves that the Republicans can win by turning independents into Republicans and getting disaffected Democrats, the Republicans may decide the conservatives aren’t worth it.
good analysis.
I am not voting for John McCain. Few conservatives will.
Thanks.
I suspect that the Limbaugh types will join the cheerleading team before November even if McCain is the nominee. Most of the talk show types like Limbaugh don't have the guts to be out there on their own without a party. Limabaugh didn't even have the guts to endorse a conservative in this election.
Is there room for two or three more Michael Savage types? I don't think so, unless they want to become short wave talk show hosts in Idaho or some such.
The Hannity and Limbaugh types will stay mainstream.
God, I miss voting for that man.
I think you’re correct. As to Savage, he’s a niche market. He’ll always have listeners, but mostly on the fringes of political thought, and they’re used to losing elections.
I remember a FR poll about who we would vote for if winning didn’t matter. That one floated back and forth between Hunter and Thompson within a fraction of a percent for the whole time the poll was active. Granted it was a FR poll but I think it indicated something important.
Obviously I’m a Hunter guy but I do think Thompson was far superior to what is left in the race today.
“When Buchanan left the party, most Republicans breathed a sigh of relief. As a whole, the party decided that it was better to have Buchanan outside the house throwing rocks, than inside.”
And guys like McCain and Huckabee have picked up the house, moved it fifty yards to the left, and started chucking rocks at those of us left behind. At least Romney and Giuliani were somewhat deferential in asking to be allowed in — which is why I and a lot of other Republicans don’t have quite as much distaste for those particular RINOs.
Anyway, I’d rather start chucking rocks back than move. If we need a new house, then so be it. Parties dying and being born is something that’s happened before and will happen again...
If hitlery is the democrap and McCain the pub, then I will vote AGAINST HER, not FOR him.
If McCain is the pub and Obama is the democrap, I just might stay home.
BTW. I have voted conservative in every election starting in 1976. 9 years in the USMC. I owe nothing to anyone.
McCain will never convince the conservative base (or at least enough to win an election) because of these issues:
1. McCain-Kennedy Immigration Amnesty Bill
2. McCain-Feingold Anti-First Amendment Bill
3. Gun Grabbing history
4. Gang of 14
5. Keating Scandal
6. Homosexual marriage/civil unions
7. Embryonic Stem Cell research
8. His 2000 outburst toward the Christian Right
9. His Giuliani-esque philandering while married
10. His hot uncontrollable filthy-mouth temper
Yeah, I was a Fredhead, but unfortunately, neither of them could get traction. If McCain tabbed Thompson as his running mate do you think it would make a difference? I don’t think Hunter ever got a high enough profile to get the less politically aware conservatives.
I've been wondering what the options were if we're kicked out of the Republican Party, but didn't want to go there yet, because the current situation isn't resolved.
I also struggle with the "holding your nose and voting" thing because I did that for Rick Perry in Texas and I'm still kicking myself.
If segments of the Republican party abandon conservatives they will do it at their peril. Not because conservatives will turn their collective backs on what is left of the Republican Party - though they will - but because their moderate/liberal policies will be their ruin.
You speak of these constituent parts as though they were sports team competing against each other and what decides the outcome is the skill level and athletic abilities of the players. Maybe that is true during elections. But when it comes to actually running the country the McCains, the Clintons, the Obamas, even the Bushs, will fail.
So let the ignorant masses make yet another mistake i.e. Carter, Ford, et al. Conservative principles will out again. Hopefully for a more sustained period of time. This one was too short.
I agree with you and once again, the key is culture war and immigration. McCain will never be forgiven McCain - Kennedy. Fortunately, Peter Brimlow is not yet a prominent force as he was beginning with his Alien Nation in 1995.
I can't see McCain winning and look for, most likely just now, Hillery or Obama to win.
It's not just the promises she makes, it's that I think she really sees everything as belonging to her, and that she'll dole out stuff as presents.
On the Republican side, I think McCain is a foregone conclusion, but my state primary is after Super Tuesday, so I can still wait if my vote will help determine the outcome. Above everything else, I don't want Hillary in the White House again.
Yep, Anyone who has paid any attention to politics over the last 20 years or so cannot help but be scared of the murdering bitch of Waco.
Considering all that Juan McAmnesty has done, I'd rather stay home.
In this article I did. I have my political opinions, but right now I'm still trying to figure out the landscape. I didn't want to make value judgments here. I'm still struggling with what comes next if it's Hillary and McCain. I said I wouldn't vote for McCain, but several Supreme Court vacancies are coming up. I think most of them will be from the liberal wing, as a couple have been waiting out Bush, but they'll still be huge. McCain will most likely go more liberal than I like, but Hillary picked Bill's appointment and we got Ruth Ginsberg. There's also the war with the terrorists. I'm convinced most of this could have been averted if it hadn't been for Carter and Clinton I. When candidates govern as limited government fiscally responsible conservatives the general public is happy with them because things go well in the country. Reagan was almost an anomaly in actually governing this way, though, because few people, once elected, are willing to reduce government power.
I have trouble seeing McCain winning, but I also didn't think he'd whip Romney by 70,000 votes in Florida. Nationwide, polls show him beating Hillary. The national press machine hasn't turned on him yet, but I never thought he had a chance at being the nominee.
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