Posted on 12/08/2007 8:02:01 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
I really could not have predicted that the Iowa race would happen the way I now see it unfolding. With Romney cratering in the Newsweek poll and Huckabee heading for the stratosphere three weeks before the caucuses, there is a new dynamic here. (Huckabee 39; Romney: 17; Thompson: 10) Many GOP voters, including those for whom the War on Terror, Immigration or crime are the big issues, think Huckabee would be a disaster for the party, is unelectable and would drag the GOP down in Congressional elections next year if he were the nominee. The question has quickly become one of who can stop Huckabee.
Let me give you two reasons that Fred Thompson appears to be the one, one having to do with the horserace and the second having to do with acceptability. First, the horserace: Romney is cratering in Iowa. Rudy is not a factor from an organizational or ideological standpoint. Neither is McCain. Once downward momentum has begun to afflict a frontrunner the way it has Romney, it is next to impossible to reverse. That leaves only one candidate who can be the alternative both from an ideological and an organizational standpoint: Thompson. If Thompson comes in second or overtakes Huckabee, he becomes the anti-Huckabee candidate and the de facto winner of the caucuses because he had been predicted to finish as low as fifth. (I cannot believe the MSM is still obligingly tamping down expectations for him. May they continue to do so.) Bear in mind that a huge number of Iowans have not decided and, in a caucus format, are capable of being persuaded at the caucus events themselves. Both of these dynamics favor Thompson, who is setting up shop in Iowa until January 3.
The second reason why Thompson is so well positioned here is acceptability. The knocks on Fred are nearly all style, fire in the belly and other intangible pap. They have nothing to do with the issues on which most GOP voters agree overwhelmingly with Thompson. As Rush Limbaugh has often said, elections are about issues. On the issues, all of them, Thompson agrees with the vast majority of GOP primary voters and is acceptable(i.e.- does not scare) any of them. The same cannot be said of Rudy and Huckabee.
“Fred’s headed down to the basement”
So was John Kerry in December 2003 or have you forgoteen? You and the rest of the Mittbots need to save all these polls; They are going to be your only memento of the failed Romney campaign.
I’m afraid Thompson is going to lose because he doesn’t look like a televangelist. There may be too many people in America now who won’t vote for someone with bags under his eyes.
I agree. It all comes down to what we’ll “settle for”. Do we abandon social conservatism? Foreign policy? No matter who you choose, you’re giving up on something.
That makes him an attractive, electable candidate in this race.
Or it could mean he wasn't as "at odds" with said Arkansas mafia as he should have been.
Thats your impression...its never been mine or many others that I know. Hes been the first to come out with detailed plans and stands on issues. Detailed. The first.
I am getting weary of those that base their impressions on what the MSM tells them to think.
The simple fact is that Thompson isn't connecting with the voters. He is not a good public speaker. He clears his throat and bobs his head too much. He has been relatively negative.
Huckabee, on the other hand, is positive, warming, and charming with the voters. Just like a good snake oil salesman. I'll be disappointed if we have another president from Hope, Arkansas.
You can stop your asinine name calling any time now. You and Fred are both turning off the undecided voters at every opportunity. Get it? No, I didn't think so.
Fred is the one candidate where the typical Republican rank-and-file, whichever leg of the base they belong to, don't have to give something up. He's got something to offer the SoCons, the FisCons, and the MilCons.
I hear you....but also think how many times you’ll see or hear “President Huckabee” in the media (ie, about as many times as you’ve seen “President Bush” in the media...nil). It’d be Mr. Huckabee!
“Thompson’s young wife and two very small children will be no help to him on the campaign.
Most women will be thinking “my husband better not try that.”
Oh Lawdie...are you serious? Most women I know are not that shallow or that stupid! Cut me a break.
Whatever built him up, can take him down because there's no foundation.
I hear his stupid radio ad and without the pro-life and pro-family part, it could just as well have been paid for by Hillary Clinton.
I consider the ad an insult. Maybe I'm the Iowan out of touch. I don't know.
“That makes him an attractive, electable candidate in this race.”
Wait until the Wayne Dumond rape/murder case (and Huckabee’s “Dear Wayne letter) gets a little wider circulation. He is dead meat in the south when that (and his 703 pardons including 12 murderers) gets out. He barely won reelection against a no name in 2002 because of Dumond.
And he scares the hell out of non-Evangelicals, who are a tiny minority in this country.He would be easy pickings for the Dems. But he won’t get that far.
In other words, he speaks like a normal person. Sorry, but what you've said only supports my view that Fred is losing traction due to the shallowness of the typical Republican primary voter.
I’m from Iowa and I can tell you that the issue of illegal immigration is a huge issue here. That is why this Huck phenomenon makes NO sense.
sw
I’m sorry, but I don’t know what post you’re replying to. Did I say that one of the candidates was being vague or without a plan?
“You and Fred are both turning off the undecided voters at every opportunity.”
Glad to see you have switched from Mitt to undecided.
Examining Huckabee's Foreign Policy Vision
In your heart, you know he'srighta Jimmy Carter wannabe.
In this age of Islamofanatical terrorism, Huckabee's warm and fuzzy approach to foreign relations just doesn't cut it. We need a strong president, not a milquetoast compassionate conniver who would seem more comfortable pining from Oprah's couch than from behind the President's desk in the Oval Office.
Huckabee's recent contention that Gitmo should be closed because it is a bad symbol [awwwwwww] in the rest of the world [i.e., liberals in Europe, the UN, and the Islamic world] is a prime example of the kind of foreign policy that makes the US appear weak in the eyes of the rest of the world. The next president will have to deal with an increasing dictatorial government in Russia, with and increasing military from China, with continued Islamofanatical terrorism sponsored by several Islamic nations, etc.
Ironically, some of Jimmy Carter's policies are what lead us to much of the Islamist terrorism of today -- his support of the overthrow of the Shah of Iran which lead to Carter's impotence in dealing with the 444 days of American hostages at the US Embassy in Iran.
And a good thing that Huckabee has on the Clinton’s is that Bill and Jim Guy Tucker started the Dumond parole mess.
Most women will be thinking "my husband better not try that."
Better not try what? Having a stable marriage and family life?
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