Posted on 12/08/2007 8:02:01 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
I really could not have predicted that the Iowa race would happen the way I now see it unfolding. With Romney cratering in the Newsweek poll and Huckabee heading for the stratosphere three weeks before the caucuses, there is a new dynamic here. (Huckabee 39; Romney: 17; Thompson: 10) Many GOP voters, including those for whom the War on Terror, Immigration or crime are the big issues, think Huckabee would be a disaster for the party, is unelectable and would drag the GOP down in Congressional elections next year if he were the nominee. The question has quickly become one of who can stop Huckabee.
Let me give you two reasons that Fred Thompson appears to be the one, one having to do with the horserace and the second having to do with acceptability. First, the horserace: Romney is cratering in Iowa. Rudy is not a factor from an organizational or ideological standpoint. Neither is McCain. Once downward momentum has begun to afflict a frontrunner the way it has Romney, it is next to impossible to reverse. That leaves only one candidate who can be the alternative both from an ideological and an organizational standpoint: Thompson. If Thompson comes in second or overtakes Huckabee, he becomes the anti-Huckabee candidate and the de facto winner of the caucuses because he had been predicted to finish as low as fifth. (I cannot believe the MSM is still obligingly tamping down expectations for him. May they continue to do so.) Bear in mind that a huge number of Iowans have not decided and, in a caucus format, are capable of being persuaded at the caucus events themselves. Both of these dynamics favor Thompson, who is setting up shop in Iowa until January 3.
The second reason why Thompson is so well positioned here is acceptability. The knocks on Fred are nearly all style, fire in the belly and other intangible pap. They have nothing to do with the issues on which most GOP voters agree overwhelmingly with Thompson. As Rush Limbaugh has often said, elections are about issues. On the issues, all of them, Thompson agrees with the vast majority of GOP primary voters and is acceptable(i.e.- does not scare) any of them. The same cannot be said of Rudy and Huckabee.
If it comes to to Huckabee, Romney or Giuliani, then I hope that GOP voters would be wise enough to vote for two of the three who can defeat the Democrat opponent.
One cannot. Hint: The one from Arkansas
Your post that Iowa votes are based on a farm economy is the same conclusion I have reached, thanks for giving the reasons why. Enough hucksters from Arkansas!
I disagree with you that Romney is cratoring. That’s a bogus line about one poll. Frankly, it sounds like wishful thinking to me on your part.
Romney has lead 2 of the last 3 Iowa polls. To call that cratering after one Newsweek poll is at best questionable in my eyes.
Fred is a great guy, and if he can get his message out, he’d be a much better candidate than Huckabee. What you say may happen, but I’m curious to see this play out.
Whatever the case, I want Huckabee gone. I cannot believe that goober has caught on the way he has. He completely takes the immigration issue off the table. He takes fiscal accountability off the table. He takes limited government off the table.
What have you got left? A Christian who likes guns and tax hikes. Lovely!
Go Fred! Go Mitt! Whoever. Just get rid of Huckabee.
lesser of evils? I don’t see any of our top three candidates as evil at all. And two of them had to deal with a big majority of liberals in their state capitols. They were still able to do much good, it spite of that fact.
Find anyone who left Presidency IV in Orlando with a better sense that Thompson was the best candidate, and wanted our votes. Just find one. Let me know when you do.
Huckabee is to Christian Conservatives what Thompson is to Constitutional/fiscal Conservatives. Unfortunately, neither can hold the base down in it’s entirety.
I said it before, and I’ll say it again. There are only two men in the field that are capable of doing so: Hunter and Tancredo.
As an aside, it is funny how two weeks ago there was a lot of guffawing and remarks saying the Christian Right was gone. Funny how all of the candidates are now trying to get the Christian Right vote...
JMO
Maybe I’m delusional, but I think the Huckabee movement could benefit Fred. If people abandon Romney or Giuliani for Huckabee, and then later decide that Huckabee isn’t acceptable either, where are they going to go?
You can’t seriously think the skydive is because of the MSM. That huge of a drop?
I thought everyone here keeps saying “the MSM is dead,” yet when things like this occur, who do we say is responsible......the MSM like they can determine destinies still.
Thompson IS my preferred candidate, but I am worried. I don’t see him winning by only focusing on trying to win SC. By that time, whoever wins IA and NH will get the attention.
Hmmmm ..??
From the beginning of Huckabee’s campaign, he has openly stated he had no finances. Funny .. since he began to rise in the polls, I have not heard ONE SINGLE WORD about the state of his finances .. and .. WHO THE HECK IS FINANCING HIM ..??
Follow the money!! When I find out WHO is the big bucks behind his campaign, I will know a lot more about WHY he’s gaining ground.
I have GIVEN UP on politics and FOCUSING on REVOLUTION!!
:-)
Take heart. Thompson has not written off Iowa and last night he announced he will be hitting that state with a campaign blitz between now and voting day. He will travel the state from one end to the other and leave only for a short time at Christmas. He has stated that at least a third place win in Iowa is very important to his campaign and his momentum going into other states and he’s going to fight for it.
Better not what?
Get married again 10-12 years after a divorce?
Not to worry, Fred is now living in Iowa:
All In: Fred Thompson Moves To Iowa
by Stephen F. Hayes
12/07/2007 10:14:00 PM
Des Moines, Iowa
FORMER TENNESSEE SENATOR Fred Thompson has decided to take his campaign and virtually all of its resources to Iowa in an all-or-nothing attempt to register a strong showing in the caucuses here on January 3. “We’re getting ready to make this not only our second home, but our first home,” he told a small gathering of supporters at the Polk County Convention Center on Friday night. Thompson and his wife Jeri chatted with the crowd before making their way through the exhibits at the Iowa Farm Bureau’s annual meeting in downtown Des Moines.
Beginning Monday, December 17, Thompson will launch a bus tour that will take him throughout the state. From the beginning of that trip through caucus night, Thompson will essentially live in Iowa, taking only a one-day trip out of the state to celebrate Christmas at his home in Virginia.
“Iowa is critical to our campaign, and it may in fact be everything to our campaign,” says one Thompson official. “If we don’t do what we need to do in Iowa, it will be tough to compete effectively down the road.”
Thompson has said publicly that he needs to finish in the top three in Iowa. Campaign officials say that a strong third place finish—presumably behind new frontrunner Mike Huckabee and former frontrunner Mitt Romney—would likely give them enough momentum to survive New Hampshire and compete in South Carolina and beyond. A second place finish would be a victory. “Just when the interest is there the greatest, is when we’ll be here the most.”
A Newsweek poll released Friday shows Huckabee shooting to a commanding lead in Iowa. Thirty-nine percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers say they support Huckabee, with 17 percent for Romney and 10 percent for Thompson. Rudy Giuliani follows with nine percent and John McCain comes in at six percent.
Neither McCain nor Giuliani appears to be making a major effort in Iowa, though there are persistent reports that Giuliani is doing whatever under-the-radar things he can—like mail—to keep his name in circulation without looking like he’s trying too hard. That leaves Thompson alone to compete with Romney and Huckabee, two candidates without national security experience, in Iowa.
Thompson will almost certainly spend most of his time here talking about the War on Terror and other national security matters. He will tout his service on the Senate Intelligence Committee and his hand in creating the Department of Homeland Security.
Thompson gave a preview of the coming campaign in response to two questions about Huckabee today. At a stop in Columbus, Ohio, Thompson criticized Huckabee after the former Arkansas governor seemed unaware of the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran when he was asked about it earlier this week. “Not only is Iran the major long-term threat to our country, the nuclear program is the most important part of the Iran consideration. For a presidential candidate not to know that and not to keep up with that is very surprising,” Thompson said, according to a report by CBS News.
“These are the kinds of things I’ve been talking about all of my life. Now, if the American people have other priorities, if they want someone who smiles a lot more than I do, or someone who is a better quipster than I am, who has no experience in these areas, that’s for the American people to decide.”
Then tonight, I asked Thompson whether we should interpret those comments as a claim that Huckabee is not qualified to serve as commander-in-chief. Thompson reiterated his concerns about Huckabee on Iran and took a shot at Huckabee’s announcement earlier this week that he favors shutting down the prison at Guantanamo Bay. “All I’m saying is that national security and foreign affairs is the most important thing facing this country,” said Thompson. “It affects our security and the security of our children. And who has nuclear capability is the most important part of the most important issue. I think it’s best if someone has experience in that regard. I’ve spent a lot of time—I served on the Intelligence Committee in the United States Senate, I’ve traveled around and met with foreign leaders. I chaired a committee that involved oversight of nuclear proliferation issues and things of that nature. So I think it’s surprising that someone that would aspire to be president takes the position like closing Guantanamo, for example, is a good thing. And does not keep up with what’s going on in Iran.”
Thompson was also asked about Mitt Romney. “He has been on both sides of a lot of issues in terms of the campaign.”
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Utilities/printer_preview.asp?idArticle=14464&R=11628E3
My dad fought wars that changed the course of history so I believe in the power of the leader to make good change. My dad fought in Korea as an infantry soldier. He saw the chinese in their neatly presses unis lying peacefully along the Yalu after the Marines and Airforce had finished their strafing runs or his battalion’s artillery barrage. He also got to get yanked out of a Saigon Bar as the 63 or whenever it was overthrow of Diem or Thu (I get em mixed up) was going down. He got in the cross fire at a street corner in his cab without his service piece. LOL. anyway I relish in what my Dad’s generation accomplished. They lite up the entire south of Korea and made another big trader for us in the far east. They tried their damndest in tought terrain with a hostile homeland in Vietnam and would have won if allowed. Even today Vietnam is a trading partner. We just finished a 2 million dollar project over there.
I was fortunate enough to listen to Apollo Astronaut Walter Cunningham USMC talk about the explorer spirit and how we have lost too much of this attitude in todays America. He was being a little overly sentimental but his point was not lost. He gave the example of the combustion engine. Do you think we could have gotten people to get into a vehicle sitting ontop of 15 gallons of gasoline today if we hadn’t come to accept it in another time? I wonder. People today would have said that’s crazy.
PS: Amen to Newt Gingrich comments on the gutless General Electric owned NBC decision not to salute our troops. Grew up like Newt and barely knew my dad until I was 9 or 10. He was gone overseas 4 or 5 years.
Get married again 10-12 years after a divorce?"
Actually, Fred waited EIGHTEEN YEARS to remarry.
I'll admit that Rudy Giuliani probably isn't as bad as Lyin' Ryan, the RINO King of Illinois from 1999-2002. Nonetheless, I believe that he would destroy the GOP nationally in much the same fashion as King George destroyed it in Illinois.
In the unfortunate event that Rudy is nominated, I would encourage people to take any money they would have donated to the GOP presidential campaign and instead use it to support GOP candidates in close congressional races. Rudy is going to have strong Democrat coat tails, but the only hope for this country will be to overcome that and somehow take back the House and/or Senate. I'd feel safer (though not by much) having Hillary confronted with a Republican Senate than with Giuliani allied with a Democrat Senate.
Baldwin is FOS. Thompson is a conservative:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1912286/posts
That’s all well and good depending on which revolution you’re joining. :-)
Most are very pro gun, pro life, and socially conservative but they tend to be a little bit on the economic liberal side.
As long as they are getting their ADF ( aid to dependent farmers) checks they are ok with more taxes.
Taxes which mostly come from someone else.
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