National Poll update: Mitt passes Thompson, within polling error of Giuliani

NJ for Romney ^ | Alan Moretti

[BOSSA]

National Poll update: Mitt passes Thompson, within polling error of Giuliani

American Research Group (Nov. 9-12) National Sample of Likely Republican Primary Voters N = 600 +/- 4%

Giuliani - 25% Romney - 21% Thompson - 17% McCain - 12% Huckabee - 6% Paul - 4%

[Petronski]

Be careful of the liar. He posts as Kevmo.

[Kevmo]

Asked & answered.

Thanks for bumping the thread.

[Petronski]

Be careful the liar. He posts as Kevmo.

[Kevmo]

Asked & answered.

Thanks for bumping the thread.

Oh, wait, that’s the same thing. You’re in parrot mode, so I can just let you have the last word.

[Petronski]

You’re lying about the meaning of the data.

[Kevmo]

Good news, folks. Petronski and I worked things out on the efficacy thread, and this post pasts muster as “not a lie”.

It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.

According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts

Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Fred is at $6, which corresponds to the traders believing he has a 6% chance of winning the nomination, and discussing why.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0

37 posted on 11/14/2007 6:53:53 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies | Report Abuse ]

[BOSSA]

Alan Moretti