National Poll update: Mitt passes Thompson, within polling error of Giuliani

NJ for Romney ^ | Alan Moretti

[BOSSA]

National Poll update: Mitt passes Thompson, within polling error of Giuliani

American Research Group (Nov. 9-12) National Sample of Likely Republican Primary Voters N = 600 +/- 4%

Giuliani - 25% Romney - 21% Thompson - 17% McCain - 12% Huckabee - 6% Paul - 4%

[org.whodat]

Buy a poll own a poll, when it’s your money it should say what you want. If it is anywhere near correct, which I doubt, with the margin of error, it is a tie, and no one is a head.

[org.whodat]

Forgot to ask: are you the Internet stalker??

[xzins]

Carl Cameron on Fox News reported an hour ago that Giuliani is funding any frontrunner other than Romney in Iowa so that Romney doesn’t get a first win and get to tie together 3-6 early wins and begin a sea-change away from Rudy. Romney, the son of a former Michigan governor, is now leading in early primary Michigan.

Rudy recognizes this as a real danger.

I expect that NRTL supported Thompson as their current best choice, hoping that he would win, or that his eventual endorsement of another candidate would not be Rudy.

That way they get the best of both worlds.

In the meantime, other than Huckabee, Giuliani’s now probable running mate, there seems to be no movement or negative movement by other candidates.

[A_Tradition_Continues]

Mitt will never be elected President of these United States. His nannyism and his slickness are the combination of Bill & Hillary.

[Kevmo]

It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.

Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0

[Petronski]

Wow, you posted your lies here too! Fred is not at 6%, though there is a futures contract at Intrade that sells at about 6.

[Kevmo]

It is not a lie, and as you have been notified on at least one other thread and have chosen not to engage on the Efficacy thread, even though you chose to post on the thread where Fred once had the lead. That means you simply don’t like what Intrade has to say today, though you once liked what it had to say, and yesterday you called it DATA.

Thanks for bumping this thread.

Fred Takes Lead on InTrade!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1842292/posts

[Petronski]

Nothing requires me to limit my flagging of your lies to your little “efficacy thread” where no one will see it.

I’m going to flag your lies wherever you put them. Those are not percentages, they are futures prices.

[Petronski]

I’m not bound to expose your lies on your little ‘efficacy thread.’ I’m going to point them out where you put them.

Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.

[Kevmo]

Asked & answered.

Thanks for bumping the thread.

[Petronski]

Happy to call attention to your lies.

Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.

[Kevmo]

Asked & answered.

Thanks for bumping the thread.

[tear gas]

Giuliani - 25%

Who are these "25%" who can support a person like Rudy? What do they believe in? Why does serial adultery not offend them? How can they overlook it? How can they believe that Rudy is really up to serving as Commander in Chief when he dodged the draft?

I'm curious about those kind of things.

[Petronski]

I’m happy to call attention to your lies, here, where you’ve posted them.

Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.

[Kevmo]

Asked & answered.

Thanks for bumping the thread.

[Petronski]

It is not a lie...

Of course it is.

...and yesterday you called it DATA.

Of course it's DATA, Sherlock, it just doesn't mean what you claim. That's your lie.

[Kevmo]

Asked & answered.

Thanks for bumping the thread.

[Petronski]

Happy to bump your lies. People can learn about you.

[Kevmo]

Asked & answered.

Thanks for bumping the thread.