Replies

jhpigott wrote:
ping

there’s a fight coming

**********

Too simple.

First off, the fight already began. We, the US and Israel working together, destroyed some sort of nuclear facility in Syria, who has a cast iron mutual defense pact with Iran.

So far, neither Syria nor Iran has answered the bell.

From there, it’s mathematically possible that the fight is over, we won, and Iran and Syria are going to be good little States from now on.

As unlikely as that is, don’t dismiss it too quick, because there areeven more questions than Stratfor raises in their analysis.

Since the raid, IDF has been acting as if at high alert, not surprising after committing an overt act of war against Syria.

In the midst of this alert, Israel warns Syria against attacking with chemical weapons, threatening nuclear armageddon on Syria.

Still, not surprising, behavior for countries at war, or on the verge of war.

But then this annoying, seemingly unrelated fact pops up, it seems Syria had a rather spectacular chemical weapons accident that killed both Iranians and Syrians, in the very recent past.

Right there, the whispers begin.

If Israel had warned Syria against attacking with nuclear weapons, that statement would be self-explanatory, but Israel never mentioned nuclear attacks. They specifically mentioned chemical attacks.

Further, there are anomalies on top of Syria’s initial account of the accident, there are problems with Jane’s version too. “Multiple agents”, and “missile fuel accident” do not mesh very well in normal chemical weapons practice, either research, or deployment scenarios.

You fuel your missiles when you’re about to launch them.

A test launch, using multiple chemicals on a single missile warhead, introduces many unnecessary variables into the test. Common sense would link multiple chem agents and missile fuel with an offensive launch, but no other indicators support tensions that high.

There’s just too much we don’t know yet to feel safe in making any assumptions.

When assumptions are unwise, then standard practice reverts to “hope for the best, plan for the worst”.

Now the French statement warning earth to prepare for war fits perfectly, except...we got to that point by refusing to assume and they jumped well ahead of the pack with a blunt statement.

In the midst of alkl the above, we have the germans telling us additional sanctions are a waste of time, and, with a sly wink, pointedly NOT mentioning any resistance to a military solution instead.

This is like watching a frozen pond with a very thin skin of ice covering it on a cool morning.

You can tell there are BIG FISH moving around under there, SEVERAL of them, but it’s hard to get much of a read on any individual fish.

So...

1. Big things are happening, just under the surface.

2. Something nuclear was attacked.

3. Israel expects possible chemical retaliation for item 2.

4. France expects war.

5. Germany steps aside for war.

6. North Korea tries to play innocent.

7. Iran and the US are silent.

Okay...yes...prepare for imminent hostilities. Could happen any time.

At the same time, given how much of the total we know we can’t see, we can’t say war won’t happen a year from now, or even that it hasn’t already happened and we won.

I like the idea of poking sly idiots with a sharp stick until they boil over, then stomping them flat.

It works in the theoretical view, and in this set of circumstances, is damned attractive in the empirical view as well.

If that’s the case, then Iran and Syria continue to buy time, as long as possible to keep refining U235, and we keep poking them harder and harder till we see approved results, or till we stomp them flat, or till there’s nothing left for the stick to poke.

If a 5 year view summarizes the situation at hand, then the three weeks since we jabbed them last is probably enough to say they aren;’t going to boil over on this alone.

So...while the ball is technically in their court, in reality, that ball has probably been declared dead, and we are teeing up to serve the next volley.

Until they do boil over, enemy responses, if any, will occur off-court.