HUMINT: The High Road [Saigon to Mogadishu to Baghdad]

humint ^ | 26 Nov 2006 | humint

[humint]

AN ANALYTICAL JOURNEY FROM Saigon to Mogadishu to Baghdad

HUMINT: Let's start making some comparisons. Given the situation on the ground in Sadr city, Iraq, it looks and sounds worse than Mogadishu of October 2003 and in some ways worse than Saigon of 1968. What if we hadn't left Somali as we did? What if we hadn't left Vietnam as we did? What if an ounce of resolve in Somalia is worth a pound of resolve in Iraq today? What if a grain of resolve in Vietnam would be worth a ton of resolve in Iraq today? Although these rhetorical questions they sound like reasonable questions.

Realizing the level of national commitment to our Somalia conflict was of a pre 9-11-2001 American mindset, it had an entirely different context than Sadr city has today. But why? Had the battle of Mogadishu prompted a national awakening back then, and the country mobilized then, the crises we face today may not have come to pass. Had American leadership answered their call to duty at that critical time, and more national effort expended earlier, the crises we are facing today across the Middle East might not have expanded into a conflagration. The simplest logic suggests our subsequent engagements in the region would be less expensive in terms of our blood and our treasure had we acted with unity of purpose sooner. The reality is that we did not act sooner, the costs cannot be differed any longer and we must now do all that we were unwilling or unable to do before.

BAGHDAD, 25 November 2006 - Followers of the militant Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr took over state-run television Saturday to denounce the Iraqi government, label Sunnis "terrorists" and issue what appeared to many viewers as a call to arms. The two-hour broadcast from a community gathering in the heart of the Shiite militia stronghold of Sadr City included three members of al-Sadr's parliamentary bloc, who took questions from outraged residents demanding revenge for a series of car bombings that killed some 200 people Thursday. With Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki relegated to the sidelines, brazen Sunni-Shiite attacks continue unchecked despite a 24-hour curfew over Baghdad. --- Militia leaders told supporters Saturday to prepare for a fresh wave of incursions into Sunni neighborhoods that would begin as soon as the curfew ends Monday, according to Sadr City residents. Several members of the Mahdi Army boasted they were distributing police uniforms throughout Shiite neighborhoods to allow greater freedom of movement. The government announced it would partially lift the curfew Sunday to allow for pedestrian traffic.

BATTLE OF MOGADISHU: The battle was over by October 4, 1993 at 6:30 AM. American forces were finally evacuated to the U.N. Pakistani base. In all, 18 U.S. soldiers died of wounds from the battle and another 79 were injured. The Malaysian forces lost one soldier and had seven injured, while the Pakistanis suffered two injured. Casualties on the Somali side were heavy, with estimates on fatalities ranging from 500 to over 2000 people. The Somali casualties were a mixture of militiamen and local civilians, who were often used as human shields. Two days later, a mortar round fell on the US compound, killing one U.S. soldier, SFC Matt Rierson, and injuring another twelve.

TET OFFENSIVE, SAIGON - Although Saigon was the focal point of the Tet Offensive, the Communists did not seek a total takeover of the city. Rather, they had six primary targets within the city: the headquarters of the ARVN, President Thieu's office, the American Embassy, a Vietnamese Air Base and their naval headquarters, and the National Broadcasting Station. A total of 35 battalions attacked these targets; many of these troops being undercover Viet Cong who lived and worked in the city. The radio station was considered an important target by the Communists. They had brought a tape recording of Hồ Chí Minh announcing the liberation of Saigon and calling for a "General Uprising." The building was taken and held for six hours, but they were unable to broadcast as the power had been cut off as soon as the station was attacked.By early February, the Communist high command realized that none of their military objectives were being met, and they halted any further attacks on fortified positions. Sporadic fighting continued in Saigon until March 7. Some sections of the city were left badly damaged by the combat, particularly by U.S. retaliatory air and artillery strikes. The Chinese district of Cholon suffered especially, with perhaps hundreds of civilians killed in American counterattacks.

There are a few revelations that these three paragraphs, in such close proximity, bring to my mind. We are indeed less safe than we were before the invasion and occupation of Iraq - but not because of the invasion and occupation, in spite of it. With the march of globalization, the irrepressible black market facilitated by failed states and sophisticated electronics - Americas enemies become more empowered by our own technology every day. Iraq was a failed state before the invasion and occupation and remains so to this day. Under Saddam Hussein, Iraq lacked the capacity to be anything other than a failed state. Although fragile, Iraq's new government represents an historical opportunity for Iraqis and the region. But none of those realities change the fact that an incompetent smattering of fools today represent a division of Viet Cong from the 1960s. The tactics and the terrain have changed remarkably. The culture and behavioral tolerance for the enemy in the Iraq war is very different. Al Sadr and his organization, outspoken enemies of the United States hold a number of seats in Iraq's parliament. Therefore, there is limited value in comparing the Iraq War (2003-Present, in the Middle East) to the Vietnam War (1965-1973, in South East Asia) except in terms of the differences. In terms of similarities - in all wars there is violent death and immeasurable despair for a great number of heartbroken families.

One more prominent thing occurred to me when comparing Iraq to Vietnam. If the U.S. withdraws from Iraq how likely is there to be a repeat of the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo that crippled the U.S. economy making support for the government of South Vietnam more difficult? The embargo played a role in the eventual cessation of support for the government of South Vietnam and the people who had worked with Americans there. Withdrawing American presence in the region opens the U.S. to the same vulnarability we faced in 1973. As Iraqis stand up and Americans stand down, will the levers of power in the Middle East once again punish the United States, turn their back on the American people, who, by all accounts are addicted to oil? Considering Vietnam's economy remains lackluster the remnants of their animosity are not particularly threating to the United States. Not so with Iraq. Whoever or whatever leads Iraq will be the recipients of billions in oil revenue annually for decades to come. Can the United States afford a failed state, so adamant in its hatred for the United States, receive so much wealth and technology and presume the threat matrix would cool? Any reasoned prophecy based on a limited inspection of these three battles/situation should at least consider the above.

1973 ARAB OIL EMBARGO: The 1973 oil crisis first began on October 17, 1973 when the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), consisting of the Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt and Syria, announced as a result of the ongoing Yom Kippur War, that they would no longer ship petroleum to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt. This included the United States and its allies in Western Europe. About the same time, OPEC members agreed to use their leverage over the world price-setting mechanism for oil in order to quadruple world oil prices, after attempts at negotiation with the "Seven Sisters" earlier in the month failed. Due to the dependence of the industrialized world on OPEC oil, these price increases were dramatically inflationary to the economies of the targeted countries, while at the same time suppressive of economic activity. The targeted countries responded with a wide variety of new, and mostly permanent, initiatives to contain their further dependency.

CONCLUSIONS

1. American leadership should have stood up to their responsability sooner.
2. The costs of failed Middle Eastern states cannot be differed any longer.
3. The historical analysis herein points to the necessities of success in all battles but particularly a necessity for victory in Iraq.
4. Victory is necessary in order to begin the process of protecting Americans from the symptoms of failed states.
5. Victory can only be declared when Iraq is no longer a failed state.
6. The United States is unable to prevent the technology, invented to improve the quality of life, from being used to degrade the quality of life of Americans by the enemies of the United States.
7. A Middle-Eastern backlash is more than likely to result upon leaving a thoroughly battered failed state in Iraq.
8. The repercussions would most likely include an embargo of the kind experienced in the aftermath of America's exodus from Vietnam.
9. When comparing the Vietnam War with the Iraq war, differences abound, not similarities.
10. Al Sadr is an enemy of the United States regardless of the role he accepts within the Iraqi system.

[humint]

SAIGON

MOGADISHU

SADR CITY

[humint]

~humint~ping~

1. HUMINT: Your Cerebral Cortex
2. HUMINT: Diary of a Brit
3. HUMINT: Eternal Vigilance
4. HUMINT: Tactical Retreat?
5. HUMINT: Locke is the key
6. HUMINT: Dissidents, Rebels and Terrorists
7. HUMINT: Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and the Unknown, Unknowns
8. HUMINT: Cold War to Terror
9. HUMINT: Studying Sadr City
10. HUMINT: Kill the Messenger
11. HUMINT: Bending Identity
12. HUMINT: New Iran Policy?
13. HUMINT: Iran Smuggling Iraqi Oil?
14. HUMINT: The American Street

[GSlob]

" ....it could be criticized from completely different directions, three of which are summarized below in a deliberately cartoonish fashion:
Criticism direction 1 [from the "lefties"]: too well known and repeated to deserve further mentioning.
Criticism direction 2 [from the "realists"]: not enough troops. More troops would resolve everything. [Israelis somehow have not been able to resolve everything after 60 years of conflict while enjoying overwhelming superiority]
Criticism direction 3 [from the "troglodytes", or "huntingtonians"]: the nature of intercivilizational war is such that any lasting success in it [measured in the breaking the enemy's WILL to fight - i.e. in breaking that enemy's civilizational identity in which that will is rooted] would have to be of genocidal nature. Thus not dusting up erstwhile Lieutenant William Calley, jump-promoting him to Lieutenant General, and sending him there as a theater commander was the first error. Everything else followed from it."

[backtothestreets]

The Sunni-Shiite hostilities have raged for nearly 1400 years. They will not voluntarily cease their hostilities. Nonetheless, Iraq may still hold the key to stability. The key may rest with the Iraqi Kurds.

In that neither the Sunni nor Shiite populations have displayed a willingness to stop hostilities, it might be prudent to enlist the Kurdish population to police the streets of the Sunni and Shiite areas with express orders to shot to kill anyone that is armed. This would require withdrawal of all Iraqi military forces from the population centers while militias are killed, captured, and effectively disarmed. It would also require our military to give maximum air and land support wherever resistance must be broken. It would further require a strict ban against Sunni and Shiite travel to the Kurdish region while peace is restored.

We are all witnesses of all that has gone wrong in Iraq, but for the most part, we are slow to acknowledge what has gone right, and the Kurdish region of Iraq has been a success that should play a larger role in restoring peace to the remainder of Iraq. The Kurdish region represents a success. We have been slow to build upon that success, and may not have many such opportunities remaining to try.

[ARealMothersSonForever]

Credit to TexKat
Names of six Iranian Revolutionary Guard agents killed in Baghdad’s "Madinat as-Sadr" car bombings on Thursday.

Names of six Iranian Revolutionary Guard agents killed in Baghdad "Madinat as-Sadr" car bombings on Thursday published.

In a dispatch posted at 1:42pm Makkah time Saturday afternoon, Mafkarat al-Islam reported that on Saturday the Iranian embassy in Baghdad received the bodies of six Iranian members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard who were secretly working in Iraq with the Shi'i sectarian militias and were killed in the car bombings of Jaysh al-Mahdi gunmen in the Madinat Saddam area on Thursday night. The Baghdad area of Madinat Saddam was nicknamed "Madinat as-Sadr" after the US occupation of Iraq in 2003.

The correspondent for Mafkarat al-Islam reported that the six bodies of the Iranian agents were received by Mujtabi Sari Nida, an employee of the Iranian embassy, from al-Kindi Hospital where they had been taken initially after the Resistance attack.

The Iranian regime claimed that the six Revolutionary Guards were present among the Jaysh al-Mahdi gunmen just as "ordinary citizens" on "pilgrimage" to the Shi'i al-Kazimiyah mosque.

The Iranian agents were killed in a part of Baghdad some 30km from the al-Kazimiyah mosque, the correspondent pointed out, noting that the area was, however, a stronghold for the Jaysh al-Mahdi and Badr Brigade Shi'i sectarian militias which receive support from Iran and the United States.

The following are the names of the six Iranian "Revolutionary Guards" killed in the Thursday car bomb attacks:

'Ali Shamkhani, killed by bleeding in the brain;
Baqir Dhu al-Qadr Rida, killed by severe wounds to the chest and back;
Muhammad Husayni, burned to death;
Ramadan Fayruzandah, died of a crushed skull and burns;
Qasim Taskhiri Rida Agha (passport NO. 01459872 from Karmanshahr, Iran) had his leg blown off and suffered a wound to the neck;
'Ali Farhad Salmani, died of a severe lateral cut on his chest and from having both legs blown off.

The Mafkarat al-Islam correspondent reported an informed source as saying that 30 commanders of the Jaysh al-Mahdi militia were killed in the Thursday attacks, among them Husayn Fattumah, who carried the name of his mother because he was a marked man after abducting three Sunni girls from a Qur’an memorization school on Palestine Street.

The regional hegemonic regime in Iran is seeking to secure its hold in Iraq by using Shi'i sectarian leaders and organizations in order to try to step into the shoes of the American occupation authorities whose grip on the country has been weakened by three years of increasingly severe Resistance attacks. To forestall Iran’s attempt to replace America as colonial power in Iraq, the Iraqi Resistance continues its offensive against pro-Iranian as well as US and pro-US groups and facilities.

http://www.uruknet.de/?p=m28552




223 posted on 11/26/2006 2:34:13 AM CST by TexKat (Just because you did not see it or read it, that does not mean it did or did not happen.)

[Marine_Uncle]

A well thought out analysis of the three put into basic historical context. We really have no option at this point but to do whatever is required to fully stabilize Iraq and show the hard core Islamos that the ME will change for the better.
The road will be a tough one. We need intelligent people in congress that put politics below the future of the USA and for that matter much of the civilized world, as well as strong determined POTUS to follow in GWB's footsteps. There are no other options.

[SierraWasp]

My first thought before even delving into your scenarios was... Why didn't he start with Soel Korea and the 48th parallel, to Siagon, to Mogadishu, to WTC, to Baghdad???

However, this latest insult in Sadr City to all traditional American believers that ANY "war" should have a declaration, a series of overwhelming no-nonsense victories and then an official surrender of our adversarie(s) that religiously consider themselves fortunate to be remaining alive and eager to do America's bidding forthwith!!!

Anything falling short of that scenario is just pure, unadulterated crappola inspired by those that despise America and all the good it stands for!!! (leftist in the MSM and the Demonicrat Party primarily)

[humint]

....it could be criticized from completely different directions, three of which are summarized below in a deliberately cartoonish fashion:

1. Criticism direction 1 [from the "lefties"]:
2. Criticism direction 2 [from the "realists"]:
3. Criticism direction 3 [from the "troglodytes", or "huntingtonians"]:

Personally, I think criticism is great. I think of critics as lesser analysts. Critics offer invitation after invitation to confrontation on matters of controversy. Professional critics are another story. They can be extremely corrosive to the most able of leaders. Solutions to them are a threat to their job security. Professional critics regularly pollute legitimate social forums where ideas might be fully debated to their logical ends. Such forums seem more rare these days. Fortunately Free Republic has developed a forum that Aristotle himself would be proud to post in. Maybe my prejudices against professional critics are too extreme - but maybe they're not...

So numerous indeed and so powerful are the causes which serve to give a false bias to the judgment, that we, upon many occasions, see wise and good men on the wrong as well as on the right side of questions of the first magnitude to society. This circumstance, if duly attended to, would furnish a lesson of moderation to those who are ever so much persuaded of their being in the right in any controversy. And a further reason for caution, in this respect, might be drawn from the reflection that we are not always sure that those who advocate the truth are influenced by purer principles than their antagonists. Ambition, avarice, personal animosity, party opposition, and many other motives not more laudable than these, are apt to operate as well upon those who support as those who oppose the right side of a question. Were there not even these inducements to moderation, nothing could be more ill-judged than that intolerant spirit which has, at all times, characterized political parties. For in politics, as in religion, it is equally absurd to aim at making proselytes by fire and sword. Heresies in either can rarely be cured by persecution. --- And yet, however just these sentiments will be allowed to be, we have already sufficient indications that it will happen in this as in all former cases of great national discussion. A torrent of angry and malignant passions will be let loose. To judge from the conduct of the opposite parties, we shall be led to conclude that they will mutually hope to evince the justness of their opinions, and to increase the number of their converts by the loudness of their declamations and the bitterness of their invectives. An enlightened zeal for the energy and efficiency of government will be stigmatized as the offspring of a temper fond of despotic power and hostile to the principles of liberty.

[humint]

My first thought before even delving into your scenarios was... Why didn't he start with Soel Korea and the 48th parallel, to Siagon, to Mogadishu, to WTC, to Baghdad??? I started to post a response to your earlier ping (to the right)- and it developed into what you see above. I too am angry about what is going on in Sadr City and have a difficult time rationalizing why we are witnessing what we are. In your post to the right you made the comparison to Mogadishu and Vietnam, so I went with it. You are absolutely right to suggest the analysis go back to Korea. I think most people forget the evolution of their own thinking much less the cognitive evolution of others so, for me personally, this kind of analysis is helpful.

Al-Sadr loyalists take over Iraqi television station To: TexKat; humint; Ernest_at_the_Beach; tubebender "Followers of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr warned Friday they will suspend their membership in parliament and the Cabinet if Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki meets U.S. President George W. Bush in Jordan next week." So...? Does anybody really give a movement??? This place is gettin as bad as Mogadishu, Somalya!!! Over there it was "War Lords" and here it's "holy cities" and "Imamas!" To think these powermad religious fanatic clerics can allow a "democracratic process" to take their place as a "rule of law," is just ludicrus!!! If there ever was any doubt, this just about removes it in my book!!! Honestly, Mr. President... Did you and your advisors actually believe you could make another "Isreal" out of Iraq??? Look into this dipwad's eyes and tell my you what you said when you looked into Putin's eyes... Puleeese!!! Cheney's not going to have ANY luck with the King of Saudi Arabia with this kind of goofy crappola going on. I'll never forget the sight of our troops lowering their rifles when confronted with this puke and his fanatics on main street in Sadr city... The "Holy City," that is... Phhhhhhht!!! I'm all for ya Mr. President in the WOT, but this is outrageous!!! I don't want another smaller black wall in Washington, D.C. with dead soldier's names on it... And I don't want this or any other nut creating a "Killing Fields, "Not again, Mr. President!!! This is truly UPSETTING!!! 114 posted on 11/25/2006 7:31:18 PM PST by SierraWasp (GovernMental EnvironMentalism... America's establishment of it's unconstitutional State Religion!!!) [ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies | Report Abuse ]

[SierraWasp]

"Followers of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr warned Friday they will suspend their membership in parliament and the Cabinet if Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki meets U.S. President George W. Bush in Jordan next week."

[parisa]

This is such a late reply, but I just wanted to let you know I appreciate your pings, and I have been reading - slowly, I'm afraid ;-} - your posts. Thank you.