Why the National Polls are Wrong

New Wars ^ | Mike Burleson

[charbookguy]

Here is some interesting insight on the GOP Voter Vault, or micro-targeting, recently revealed in the MSM, from the book One Party Country: The Republican Plan for Dominance in the 21st Century by Tom Hamburger and Peter Wallsten:

“The more scientific strategy has transformed the way political campaigns are fought, and it has put the Republicans in the lead. While the old-model campaign sought to educate voters about a candidate and his or her views, the new strategy almost completely reversed that approach. Instead of educating voters about Bush, Rove worked at educating himself and his staff about voters-and about how to target them with narrowly cast appeals. One could ask why it mattered if a handful of Jews in Cleveland or Latinos in Orlando or labor union members in West Virginia voted for Bush. The answer was the Republicans ability to send custom-tailored messages to relatively small numbers of voters inside Democratic precincts in swing states enabled them to slice away pieces of the enemy’s base. Each slice might seem inconsequential standing alone, but taken together the slices might add up to something very consequential. Moreover, because these once-Democratic swingers were trimmed away in so many carefully selected but disparate places-creating Bush blocs only where they were needed-the shift didn’t always register in national opinion polls, or on the radar of Democratic strategists. It was the political equivalent of stealth technology in airpower: Democrats would feel the bombs explode, but they would not see the bombers.”

[charbookguy]

This is why Bush and Rove can feel confident of a GOP victory on Election Day, despite national polls favoring Democrats. Nevertheless, liberals, of course, will blame voter fraud because of new electronic voting machines, given their ingrained paranoia of technology and fear of anything new.

[woodb01]

Also, HAVA (Help America Vote Act) and the e-voting machines are DRAMATICALLY cutting into the DNC ability to engage in the widespread VOTE FRAUD that is so rampant with paper ballots.

That my friends is why you hear so much shrieking in the media about e-voting machines! And why you almost never hear ANYTHING about the LONG TIME WIDESPREAD PAPER vote fraud!!! And that's another reason the polls are so screwed up!

The polling orgs have been padding the Dem vote for some 25 years. From 10 - 20% oversampled and UNCORRECTED... And in some cases, MANUALLY adjusted upward when necessary. This was the only way they could guage "accurate" election results.

Over the years the pollsters often attributed it to higher voter "turnout" at the polls. But the reality is that it was vote fraud. Plain and simple. "Stuffed" ballot boxes and all...

Those old formulas just don't work now...

[photodawg]

The answer was the Republicans ability to send custom-tailored messages to relatively small numbers of voters inside Democratic precincts in swing states enabled them to slice away pieces of the enemy’s base.
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This is vastly overrated. If true you would have to accept the argument that dems are easily separated from their allegiances by a personal message. What is truly happening is that the Republicans are offering something to all Americans that is resonating. America is a great country, with great people, and its worth defending. The democrats are offering the same America sucks we don't get our fair share, vote for us we'll change things. Many voters since 9-11 and the Islamic threat are appreciating their country more and are increasingly proud to be American. The dems deserting the pacifist party are doing so because they trust and feel comfortable voting for republicans and for their country.

[charbookguy]

I'm not saying this is why Republicans are winning. Of course the message is superior. But this is why the polls are wrong.

[photodawg]

I'm not saying this is why Republicans are winning. Of course the message is superior. But this is why the polls are wrong.

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Possibly, if you accept the premise that the dems are so easily duped into voting republican. I think the discrepancy in the polls might be attributable to what I call "lip service liberals". They are true Americans who deep down love their country, but have been raised with all the main stream leftist propaganda. They know all the politically correct ideology and have hollowly espoused it for many years to be accepted by their teachers, friends, and associates. After 9-11 many of them have undergone a soul searching reformation and rebirth. They now appreciate America more deeply and are not swallowing the leftist line any longer. They reflect this in the voting booth, they just don't have the confidence or nerve to articulate it in public. When these people are polled they just spout back what they know they are expected to say, but it no longer accurately reflects what they truly believe.

[charbookguy]

Its also in the way the question is asked. Sometimes the polster can be misleading.

[photodawg]

Sometimes the polster can be misleading.
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sometimes the one polled can be misleading and the pollster be misled.