An Intelligent Reading of the National Intelligence Estimate

TCS Daily ^ | 9/29/2006 | James H. Joyner Jr.

[Jane2005]

Reports in the Sunday editions of the New York Times and Washington Post that an April National Intelligence Estimate concluded that the Iraq War has increased the danger to the United States from terrorists created a media feeding frenzy. Critics of the war said "I told you so" while supporters questioned the motives of the leakers and the reporters alike.

Under pressure, the White House declassified and released the "Key Judgments" portion of the NIE Tuesday night. Not surprisingly, the real picture was substantially more complicated and, frankly, not all that different from what informed readers already knew.

The opening paragraph encapsulates the story:

"United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa'ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa'ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement—which includes al- Qa'ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts."

So, over the last five years, we have simultaneously decimated the most potent terrorist threat to the United States and seen the spread of the overall movement of which it is a subcomponent.

[sappy]

"...however, we judge that al-Qa'ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests..."

Could easily switch al-Qa'ida with Democrats/Liberals in this sentence without making much of a leap. In terms of "incalculable damage" as Mrs. Rodham Clinton has said.