>You think you've got your "gotcha" that somehow 99% of PhD biologists haven't spotted, and you don't want to let go of it.
You're damn right I do.
And I noticed that you have to spin away from addressing the math.
It's not complicated, a kid could figure it out.
I haven't spun away from addressing it. As has already been pointed out your math doesn't address the real world. There is no point in picking holes in a mathematical model that only models a straw man version of evolution that is in your head.
Real biologists have done lots of work about the real probability of favourable mutations fixing in the population. Amongst the facts that your model fails to address is that in a population of (say) one billion individuals, at any moment *hundreds of billions* of favourable mutations will *simultaneously* be working towards fixation. The overwhelming majority of them will probably fail to fix but some succeed. If you want to research this then I suggest that you read the relevant papers to get up to speed with the current state of knowledge, then you'll be in a position to contribute to the debate.