I haven't spun away from addressing it. As has already been pointed out your math doesn't address the real world. There is no point in picking holes in a mathematical model that only models a straw man version of evolution that is in your head.
Real biologists have done lots of work about the real probability of favourable mutations fixing in the population. Amongst the facts that your model fails to address is that in a population of (say) one billion individuals, at any moment *hundreds of billions* of favourable mutations will *simultaneously* be working towards fixation. The overwhelming majority of them will probably fail to fix but some succeed. If you want to research this then I suggest that you read the relevant papers to get up to speed with the current state of knowledge, then you'll be in a position to contribute to the debate.
"...at any moment *hundreds of billions* of favourable mutations will *simultaneously* be working towards fixation."
Sorry Dude, it doesn’t work like that.
According to the Theory of Evolution, if a mutation takes place, the whole process starts over again.
There is only ONE parent unit involved. (simple cells split, others require male and female)
“hundreds of billions” of cells can’t evolve into the same new type.
Only one cell in the “hundreds of billions” can be the parent to an individual new type.
The Theory of Evolution does allow the “hundreds of billions” of cell to evolve into many different new types of cells.
Based on the Theory of Evolution, any specie’s lineage is always traced back to one parent (parents) for each transition. (evolutionary tree)
According to scientist, we only have 10 billion years to deal with.
Nasa.gov: “A particularly important epoch lies between redshifts of 1 and 3 (from about 7 to 10 billion years ago), when the present-day universe began to take shape.”
Do you get it?
The earth wasn’t here 10 billion years ago.
That’s when “the present-day universe began to take shape”.
How much of the 10 billion years was used up before the earth was even here, and then able to support life?
So, we have way less than 10 billion years to go from rock to man.
We each start out as one cell at conception and turn into a 10-trillion-cell mechanism able to reproduce same.
You don’t need a $5 calculator to realize these numbers don’t add up.