Iran & the Bomb : How Close Is Iran?

From the third part ....the beginning....see the link for the rest of the article.....:

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08:21 Jan 23, 2006

Iran & The Bomb 3: Strike options

posted by jeffrey under iran

This is third part in a three part series on Iran’s nuclear capabilities that I am writing at the urging of Noah Shachtman from DefenseTech. (Read Part 1 and Part 2).

A diverse crowd including Pat Buchanan’s American Spectator) and Sy Hersh at the New Yorker) news outlets have been reporting signs of an imminent strike on Iran for a couple years now. The most recent stir was caused by German reporter Udo Ulfkotte, who claimed US officials were briefing our allies in Europe about plans for a military strike on Iran.

A lot of this rhetoric has been overheated. (Bill Arkin recently wrote a thoughtful post on the how strike planning has changed under the Bush Administration.)

Still, folks in the United States defense establishment have clearly begun to at least think about what a military option against Iran’s nuclear programs might look like. Newsweek recently reported “the CIA and DIA have war-gamed the likely consequences of a U.S. pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.”

In this post, I outline the parameters, challenges and prospects for a strike designed to eliminate just Iran’s nuclear programs. Overall, I think the prospects for a strike are mixed—a properly timed strike might delay Iran’s program by a few years, although there are good reasons to think that the long-term result of a strike would be to worsen America’s security.

From the first part ...an excerpt ..... .contining the technical discussion regarding the critical ....timing information and argument....

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Overall, Iran is probably a little less than a decade away from developing a nuclear weapon. The key question here is how long it will take Iran to enrich a few tens of kilograms of uranium to more than 90 percent U-235.

Dafna Linzer reported that the US Intelligence Community does not believe that Iran could do so before “early to mid next decade”—a revision of previous assessments that Iran would “have the ability to produce nuclear weapons early in the next decade.”

Why so long? The answer is that Iran still has to build, install and operate its centrifuges to enrich uranium.

David Albright and Corey Hinderstein at the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) released an estimate that breaks down the steps for Iran to make fissile material for a bomb, along with a nifty satellite image (at right) of Iran’s Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) at Natanz.

Most references to Iran being “months” away from a bomb are really statements about how close Iran will be once it completes the FEP—something, as you will soon see, that will take a few years.

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But, first a little digression …

Iran plans to house about 50,000 centrifues in the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) at Natanz in order to produce low enriched uranium for a notional civil nuclear power program. The output of a centrifuge is measured in “seperative work units”—a measure of the amount of work required to enrich a given amount (product) uranium. In math:...........................

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See link to Part 1 for rest of the article......

From Instapundit:

January 20, 2006
The Glenn & Helen Show: Austin Bay and Jim Dunnigan on Iranian Nukes, Syria, and More

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January 20, 2006

The Glenn & Helen Show: Austin Bay and Jim Dunnigan on Iranian Nukes, Syria, and More

It's another podcast -- this one featuring blogger and author Austin Bay and StrategyPage publisher, and author of many books, Jim Dunnigan.

Jim and Austin talk about Iran's nuclear weapons program, unconventional delivery systems, the prospects for an Iranian popular revolt, and much, much more.

You can listen to the podcast (no iPod needed!) by clicking right here, or you can get it via iTunes or the RSS feed at the right. (It also appears automatically in some aggregators, like MyYahoo). As always, the lovely and talented InstaWife is soliciting comments about the show.

Hope you like it!

UPDATE: A somewhat encouraging analysis of Iran's situation.

And note the "Podcasts" tab on the Nav bar at the top, which takes you to an archive of podcasts.

Another related item from the Washington Post.(believe this was posted January 17, 2006; 09:30 AM ET ....excerpted of course:

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Attack Iran? We're Ready

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If Iran continues to defy the international community and manufactures nuclear weapons materials, and if U.S. intelligence detects peculiar movements or actions associated with nuclear facilities or, say, Iranian arming and alerting of its ballistic missile or fighter force, CONPLAN 8022 could be implemented to strike at the activity.

Given that the justification for preemption and for the global strike capability is to prevent "another 9/11," this time one with WMD, it wouldn't be relevant whether the United States was confident that it knew where ever last gram of Iran's weapons were. The focus would be against Iran's ability to deliver a WMD. The objective would be to forestall another 9/11. A strike that halted preparations for attack and set back the program so that it was no longer an immediate threat would be a success under the Bush administration's plan.

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Much more at the article linked above.....

IMHO - If the are thinking about developing a nuke they are to close.

I hope people will download this aritcles and read them carefully. Perhaps then we shall see less moaning about some dude "carrying" a suitcase bomb into a US city. I have gone easy on Freepers on this issue, e.g. suitcase nuclear weapons, but the few times I wrote stuff, clearly mirrors what one will read at these sites.
And the missle parts are good. One can see they are not anywhere as advanced as some are lead to believe. And to perfect any missle system, one just doesn't fire one off and get everything right the first time. People should think of how many dozens and sometimes hundreds of tests where made by countries to perfect the guidance systems and aero dynamics of long range missles to be able to hit something within a few miles over a few thousand mile range. It is not a simple task.
At any rate, thanks for the posts.