From the first part ...an excerpt ..... .contining the technical discussion regarding the critical ....timing information and argument....
****************************************************
Overall, Iran is probably a little less than a decade away from developing a nuclear weapon. The key question here is how long it will take Iran to enrich a few tens of kilograms of uranium to more than 90 percent U-235.
Dafna Linzer reported that the US Intelligence Community does not believe that Iran could do so before “early to mid next decade”—a revision of previous assessments that Iran would “have the ability to produce nuclear weapons early in the next decade.”
Why so long? The answer is that Iran still has to build, install and operate its centrifuges to enrich uranium.
David Albright and Corey Hinderstein at the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) released an estimate that breaks down the steps for Iran to make fissile material for a bomb, along with a nifty satellite image (at right) of Iran’s Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) at Natanz.
Most references to Iran being “months” away from a bomb are really statements about how close Iran will be once it completes the FEP—something, as you will soon see, that will take a few years.
***
But, first a little digression …
Iran plans to house about 50,000 centrifues in the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) at Natanz in order to produce low enriched uranium for a notional civil nuclear power program. The output of a centrifuge is measured in “seperative work units”—a measure of the amount of work required to enrich a given amount (product) uranium. In math:...........................
************************************************
See link to Part 1 for rest of the article......
From Instapundit:
January 20, 2006
The Glenn & Helen Show: Austin Bay and Jim Dunnigan on Iranian Nukes, Syria, and More
***************************
January 20, 2006
The Glenn & Helen Show: Austin Bay and Jim Dunnigan on Iranian Nukes, Syria, and More
It's another podcast -- this one featuring blogger and author Austin Bay and StrategyPage publisher, and author of many books, Jim Dunnigan.
Jim and Austin talk about Iran's nuclear weapons program, unconventional delivery systems, the prospects for an Iranian popular revolt, and much, much more.
You can listen to the podcast (no iPod needed!) by clicking right here, or you can get it via iTunes or the RSS feed at the right. (It also appears automatically in some aggregators, like MyYahoo). As always, the lovely and talented InstaWife is soliciting comments about the show.
Hope you like it!
UPDATE: A somewhat encouraging analysis of Iran's situation.
And note the "Podcasts" tab on the Nav bar at the top, which takes you to an archive of podcasts.
