Posted on 01/07/2006 2:15:55 PM PST by new yorker 77
How To Rig A Poll (or, Breaking Down The Latest AP/Ipsos Poll) Posted by bulldogpundit on Friday, 06 January 2006 (17:07:43) EST Contributed by bulldogpundit
You'll likely be hearing orgasmic Democrats and the MSM crowing about this AP Ipsos poll which has the headline "Voters Seem More Ready To End GOP Control Of Congress". The poll shows the following:Quote: Wrong Track - 65%/Right Track - 32%
Bush Approval Rating - 59% Disapprove/40% Approve
Who Do You Want To Control Congress - 49% - Democrats/36%- Republicans
Sounds bad, huh? Well, as we've said before you (and the GOP leaders) shouldn't use these polls as any kind of indicator as to what could happen in 2006, which is certainly how the MSM will spin it.
But here's what you won't see in the news stories. - the demography of the poll respondents
First, only 81% of respondents were even eligible to vote, and there's no indication of how many of them actually went to the polls in 2004..
1. Party Leanings - The poll is slanted 52-40% towards Democrats, even though the voters in the 2004 election were split evenly at 37% between Republicans and Democrats.
2. Religion - Next, a whopping 19% of respondents had "no" religion, while in 2004 only 10% of voters had "no" religion, and they voted overwhelmingly for Kerry (+36%).
3. Age of Respondents In this poll 31% of the respondents were between 18-34, even though the 18-29 year olds (a slightly smaller demo) only made up 17% of the electorate in the 2004 election. I think it's pretty safe to say that by including 30-34 year olds that number would have come close to the IPSOS sample.
4. Income Level of Respondents - This one is amazing. In this poll 15% of respondents made under $15,000 per year. In 2004, only 8% of voters were in this income bracket, and voted 63-36% for Kerry.
5. Marital Status - In this poll, only 56% of respondents are married. In 2004, 63% of voters were married, and voted 57-42% for Bush.
6. Geography - In this poll, only 17% of respondents were from "rural" areas. In 2004, 25% of voters were from rural areas, and voted 57-42% for Bush.
7. Race - In this poll, there were 71% white respondents and 12% Hispanic respondents. In 2004, 77% of voters were white, and only 8% Hispanic. Bush won the white vote 58-41% and Kerry the Hispanic vote 53-44%.
We're not saying the GOP is going to have an easy time in 2006, but when you read slanted polls like this you really wonder if the purpose of conducting it was to get good results, or push an agenda. Given the history of the AP/Ipsos poll, my bet is on the latter.
FYI.
The Fool's Gold of FAKE POLLS.
Clearly this poll is statistically flawed, designed for publicity rather than information.
Find me a fair poll.
It is designed to justify FAKE NEWS.
I prefer real ratings: 2005 Nielsen Cable News Rankings - Hardball Ranked #31
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1551326/posts
Generate a slanted poll, so the handmaidens of the left can grow and editorialize on it until the next pollitorial comes out..
Real Poll here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1553789/posts
Here's how it works with AP polls:
First, questions for the poll are obtained from the office of Howard (the duck) Dean.
Next, these questions are submitted (read to) the entire staff of the DNC, by a Republican consultant hired solely on their ability to read.
After the DNC pollees have the questions explained to them (this process takes several hours), their reactions are recorded and tallied.
At this point in the process, the Republican consultant, is then asked to respond to the questions, and gladly complies. His (or her) responses are then tallied and included with the final results that are now ready to be released to the AP (whose office is the next floor down from Howard (the duck) Dean's office.
I hope that this clears up any questions on how AP polls come into existence.
Maybe the next time they want to infer what voters want, they will actually poll people who vote and they will poll the sample size that voter segments actually vote.
IT'S THE SAMPLE STUPID!
As you've noted, polling results are only as valid as the samples used to generate them!
[BTW: The AP (and its French polling company,IPSOS REID) joins Zogby as the most BOGUS/BIASED pollsters currently polling -- the rest of the MSM pollsters aren't far behind!]
52% of the peopke pokked are Democrats, yet Democrats have not won higher than 50% of the vote in a Presidential election since 1964.
They were between 45% and 47% in 200, 2002 and 2004.
Zogby is a dishonest leftist.
I meant people polled.
"Maybe the next time they want to infer what voters want, they will actually poll people who vote and they will poll the sample size that voter segments actually vote."
ROTFLMAO!!
Like THAT'S going to happen!!!
It's designed for more than that. I know it's hard for all of us diehard political junkies to envision this, but there are a ton of people out there in the middle who haven't the foggiest idea of what the political issues are, yet never miss voting in a major election because they're worried about the shame factor of having to tell certain people in their lives that they didn't vote. So when they hit the voting booths, they ask themselves, "Who am I supposed to be voting for?" It's this small (but not small enough!) handful of people who these "pollsters" are aiming at. (Among other groups).
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