He's leaving out of his equation the growing number of Dems in fly-over country who are being forced to choose between their basic moral beliefs and the opposition to them among the Dem leadership. I've had any number of Dems tell me that they voted for Bush last time because of that very thing. Any "conservative" Republican who would jeopardize the advances that we have made for the sake of one or two issues that have less importance than the whole of the others, would, imho, be replaced by a forementioned Dem, or some previously uninterested person who finally noticed that lines were being drawn and decided to take a stand for what they believe. When it gets simple enough for people to see "Right or Wrong" as they perceive it, more people will take sides and act on their convictions.
Yeah, he seemed to have forgotten quite a bit in his guesstimating.