Potential Republican Crack-Up

[KMB]

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.

[sionnsar]

No no. I thought you were on vacation at the Grand Canyon, which is why your comment about Katrina confused me, until I figured out that it wasn't you but Hi Heels who was on vacation at the Grand Canyon. But your profile page said Canada, so I figured out you were in its projected path in Canada and not the Grand Canyon.

And yes, well, it was dry-ish in Seattle but it rained last night, and a bit today, and hopefully more to come, so our dry season is over. (When you live deep in the woods amongst 150-200' cedars, you don't want dry!)

[fanfan]

Good point.


My son does display an ability to choose wisely.

Getting hungry, again.

He,he.

[Monkey Face]

yah...I should have never thought of cinnamon rolls with chocolate frosting....:o[

[fanfan]

LOL.

I know what you mean.
Some times I find it hard to keep up.....I'm forming my response to one post, and find I'm , oh, um, 6 to 350 posts behind!
;-)

That must be nice with lots of those big cedars.
My tallest is 40', and I don't have enough of them yet.
I keep planting them though. :-)

[fanfan]

'Face's fault.

*smirk*

[NicknamedBob]

Don’t cry for me, Cindy Sheehan!

The Truth is, I don’t believe you!

You’ve got your wild days, your bad existence,

He kept his promise. You keep your distance!



You’ve got illusions. His answer is lost to you now.

The fortune, and the fame, that you have invited in,

Consume you and feed you somehow,

It seems they are all you desire.

The sacrifice, that was your son’s life,

Has burned you in your quest for fire.



Don’t cry for me, Cindy Sheehan!

The Truth is, I don’t believe you!

Enjoy your wild days, your bad existence,

He kept his promise. Give him some distance!

[sionnsar]

Most of the time it's nice. But not in autumn when they start dropping fronds (this will start any time now). Kills the grass. And in November when we get our big winds I worry, because a cedar will look just fine -- until it snaps.

Eventually I'm going to have to cut downs the ones too close to the house, but it's hard because they're so pretty. One of the things I loved about this house when we first saw it was that out of every window you saw almost nothing but cedars.

[tuliptree76]

I'm back. And it's quiet again...

[Monkey Face]

It's been like this all day. And I'm going to make it quieter by heading for bed.


Nite, all.

[tuliptree76]

Free drinks!

[tuliptree76]

'Night, Face.

[NicknamedBob]

Thanks! I needed that!

[tuliptree76]

Finally! I was all alone in here. :-(

[NicknamedBob]

Some places are a little spooky, but I like the general quiet. Lots of good places to curl up with a book.

Of course, if you are adventurous, you could look in on some of the ongoing construction projects. The work is fascinating! You can even lend a hand if you wish.

In addition to robot operators, we are going to need some trained pilots, so anyone interested should begin familiarizing him or herself with the control systems.


Then we have all those laboratories, where we are whipping up space excursion suits, and other needs for our future trips. Lots of activity there.

Or you can just get comfortable, or wander through the aviary, or the gardens. After all, that's why we built the place.

[Do not dub me shapka broham]

Sweet!

:7)

[fanfan]

We have had two go down in storms over the last 10 years.
One, beside the house went down on an angle away from the house, and boy, the cracking sound it made terrified us.

The other one was on the edge of the property, and fell on a neighbors roof. Whoops.

[Dead Corpse]

Tagline maintainance...

[NicknamedBob]

I guess I don't watch O'Reilly enough. I can never find those pithy quotes.

So I'm forced to use my own. That's why my taglines are always dressed in rags, standing at the intersection, but with my comfortable shoes on.

[Pippin]

Good Morning Bob!

[tuliptree76]

'Morning, Bob.