YES! We've got more allies than ever before with the gay marriage debacle...
Toronto skews the Ontario numbers heavily into the Liberals' favour, due to the presence of 20,000 vote majorities in many Toronto ridings for the Liberals.
If the Conservatives and Liberals are tied in Ontario, the CPC will win a lot more seats (something like 55 to 40 with the rest going NDP). The Liberals need to be about 3-5 percentage points above the Conservatives in Ontario to win the same number of seats, and 6-7 ahead to win over half the seats (due to the NDP likely to get 8-10).
It depends from what point of view you're looking at it from. Unfortunately, from many Canadians' perspective, the gay marriage debacle was a triumph of human rights. And from a Machiavellian political perspective, it was an ably orchestrated political coup; a fait d'accompli that spits in the faces of all conservatives. Nevertheless, I think we made a few new supporters. The trick is getting them to vote. I'd be happy if the Conservatives took another 15 seats from the Liberals in Ontario and 5-10 in the maritimes. And 1 in Quebec.