Dubious Intel

Airborne Hog Society ^ | 02 May 2005 | AHS MilBlogger

[Axhandle]

Recent intelligent reports of dubious value gave me occasion to reflect upon our intelligence community in general, today. The whipping boy of the post 9/11 world seems to be our intelligence community. The errors, shortcomings and red tape of the Central Intelligence Agency and, to some degree, the Federal Bureau of Investigation have been held up as the reasons that we did not see the 9/11 attacks coming and for difficulties in Afghanistan and Iraq. Perhaps this is because of how we define quality intelligence.

For intelligence to be of value, it must meet two criteria. It must be timely and it must be accurate. I would also add in a third criterion: it must be relevant. That third criterion is important, because the first two criteria can be met with no effect on operations. The third criterion is the important one. Perhaps that is why our intelligence community is getting so much criticism - maybe the critics understand the timely and accurate part, but not the relevant part. A relevant and timely anecdote will help to illustrate the idea that I am trying to convey...

Yesterday, we got a hot piece of intelligence over the net. A possible VBIED (Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device) was thought to be traveling somewhere in our city. The description? A truck of unknown color, make and model. At least we know that the intelligence was probably correct. We have VBIEDs in our city all of the time. There is always at least one, riding around, looking for a target. So, if one of them was a truck, then the S-2's magic 8-ball was dead on (S-2 is Army-speak for "intelligence officer").

That was not the first time that our S-2 chalked up a victory for the 8-ball, however. In the previous week, we also received a report that a white truck with a red stripe was a possible VBIED. Less than 5 minutes after this "be on the lookout" report came over the net, one of our platoons spotted 13 trucks meeting that description in a traffic jam, on one street. Go 8-ball!

We have a special name for intelligence that is actually of value. It is called "actionable intelligence". That means that it is intelligence that we can act on, to find more intelligence or to inflict damage upon the enemy's capabilities. Irrelevant intelligence is not actionable. A truck of unknown color, make and model, in some broad area that we always expect VBIED trucks to be in, is irrelevant. We always guard against such a threat. Vague reports telling us that the threat still exists has no impact upon our normal operations.

I agree with critics who say that our intelligence capabilities were inadequate prior to 9/11. And I would wager that they are still inadequate. That is what happens when lawmakers pass bills that say you cannot deal with unsavory characters, in pursuit of intelligence gathering. It is what happens when funding is inadequate and recruiting does not or cannot focus on the right people, such as Arabic and Farsi linguists. Where I part ways with the critics is when they claim that we had intelligence that should have tipped us off to the 9/11 attacks. None of the intelligence was actionable, unless you have a weird notion of "actionable". Had the proper authorities heeded the alerts of those who pointed out that Islamist nutjobs were learning to fly planes, but showed no interest in landing them, then perhaps we could have nabbed a few of the murderers. But, the rest were not so brazen in their planning and preparation.

There was, is, and will be a realistic threat of terrorist attacks on our nation, in the foreseeable future. To say that we should have known that something was imminent because of "increased chatter" or other vague concepts is like telling those of us in this patrol base that there is a possible VBIED, somewhere in our city - a truck of unknown color, make and model. The real mistakes were made by our lax security standards that allowed armed hijackers onto an aircraft, our foolish laws that did not allow weapons in aircraft cockpits, and our failure to even attempt enforcement of our immigration laws that are routinely ignored and openly violated by people such as the 9/11 hijackers. If one of our platoon leaders did not require his Soldiers to pull security while halted in this city and they were then struck by a VBIED, I would not fault vague intelligence for the attack - I would fault the platoon leader's failure to maintain security. This is not an unrealistic example - leaders have been relieved for such failures, here in Iraq.

I do not understand how any rational person can blame the intelligence community for 9/11 or blame the government for not acting upon vague intelligence. But, I am certainly open to comments explaining why I am wrong.

Watch out for trucks.