His campaign stops show Kerry's in trouble!

Kerry spent today in Elyria, Ohio. Elyria is in the 9th District of Ohio, in the northern corridor along I-90/I-80. It is in the "rust-belt" portion of the state -- about 2/3rds of the way between Toledo and Cleveland. Gore won this district by 13% in 2000. The congresswoman, Marcy Kaptur, has made her name in DC as a protectionist. Kerry's trip is bound to be covered in the Cleveland area as well, which Gore won by double digits in 2000.

Jay's Interpretation: Kerry might be playing to his base here. Are there problems with his status in the northern corridor, a spot in which he should win handily? Gore carried the congressional districts along this area without breaking a sweat. He won the 9th district by 9%, the 10th (Kucinich's district, btw) by 11% and the 11th by 61%. Elyria is in Lorain county, which Gore won by 12,000 votes. Does Kerry think he can squeeze any more blood from this stone? Perhaps he does. Clinton carried Lorain by nearly 20,000 votes...but that was against an anemic Dole/Kemp campaign. And in 2000, turnout in that county was at a whopping 60%. Though plausible, it seems a stretch to me to say that what Kerry is doing there today is trying to expand on Gore's vote totals. It seems more plausible to me that he is underperforming here, that the war on terror issue is undercutting him.

Some might say it is because the number of new registered voters has increased so dramatically in Lorain County that Kerry has come here...and that might be true. But I tend to be skeptical of how much voter turnout can be increased in typically strong Dem holdouts like Lorain County. It seems that places that are much more evenly divided, or places where populations are arriving, not leaving, are places where that could occur. I am also skeptical in general of the 527's get-out-the-vote efforts. The Democrats have historically done very well at that. I think the 527s are probably suffering the law of diminishing marginal returns in places like Elyria. It seems to me that Kerry would be looking to expand in places like the 1st District (Cincinnati), which Gore lost by 5%. Or in the 3rd District (southeast Ohio), which Gore lost by 7%. Or in the 6th District (southwewst Ohio), which Gore lost by 2%. Or the 12th District (central Ohio), which Gore lost by 5%. These are the places where Kerry should be focusing if he wants to improve upon Gore's results. If he only hopes to match Gore's result, he would be in Elyira.

Kerry was also scheduled to head to Ft. Lauderdale today. Ft. Lauderdale is one of those minority-majority districts represented by Democrat Alcee Hastings. Gore won this area by 60% in 2000.

Jay's Interpretation: This is definitely Kerry playing to his base. Now, of course, this will get on south Florida television, and therefore might help Kerry with the Cuban voters in the 18th District and the 21st District, both of which Dubya carried in 2000. But, given that Gore pretty much maximized his voter turnout in 2000 in these areas...this seems to me to be a sign that Kerry is playing catch-up in South Florida. And of course, to catch up to where Gore was in 2000...LEAVES HIM 537 VOTES SHORT!

Overall, it seems to me that Kerry has dedicated today to his base. I think this is a troublesome sign for the senator. Now, the fact that he is playing to his base in red states means that he is not playing complete defense...but I am skeptical that these typically blue areas of these red states will become any bluer for Kerry, who only enjoys tepid enthusiasm among both unionists and blacks. I think he is trying to catch up to Gore's 2000 results, which of course is insufficient.

Dubya spent today in Waterloo, IA in the northeast portion of the state. This is in Blackhawk county, which the president lost by 7,000 votes in 2000. Waterloo is in the 1st Congressional District, home of Republican Rep. Jim Nussle. This has been a historically Republican portion of the state, 2000 was an exception. Karl Rove has commented in the past that Dubya lost the state because there was not a large enough airport in northeast Iowa for Dubya to land there in 2000. Apparently, they are rectifying that mistake (did they chopper him in?).

Jay's Interpretation: Clearly, Dubya is playing offense in Iowa today. He lost the state by about 4,000 votes. If he can pick up votes in this usually Republican section of the state, that should be enough to make up the difference. I think it is doubtful that Kerry could win Iowa by anything more than 4,000 votes (i.e. not many people have jumped from Bush's ship in Iowa). Thus, righting a 2000 "wrong" in Iowa's 1st CD might just be the trick for 2004.

Bush was also scheduled to appear in Carver County, Minnesota. It is a southern, exterior suburb of Minneapolis.

Jay's Interpretation: Now, we have all heard about Dubya's plan to drum up support in the "Exurbs," places where Dubya did well in 2000. Bush/Cheney's goal has been to increase voter turnout in those places, and Carver County is one of Minneapolis's "exurbs." Bush carried the county by 23%, but this appearance is bound to find its way onto Minneapolis/St. Paul television, and therefore effect the other exurbs where the race was closer. One such place is Dakota County, where the President won in 2000 by less than 1%. Another is Anoka, where he won in 2000 also by less than 1%. Another is Washington county, which he won by about 2%. If Dubya improves his performances in these areas, that could tip this election. He only lost the state by 2% in 2000.

Overall, it seems to me that Dubya is expanding beyond his base today. He is trying to appeal to areas in which he can do better than he did in 2000. Again, Dubya lost Iowa by just 4,000 votes. He lost Minnesota by 2%. Better performances in just the two places he visited today would give him an extra 17 EVs, which in this race would just about crush Kerry.

Kerry has been running his campaign in reverse since he got into the race. He ran as a "centrist" in the Democrat primaries when he should have been running as a liberal. Because of this, he alienated a lot of his base who hated him only a little less than they hated Lieberman. (Supporting Lieberman on DU would get you banned, supporting Kerry would merely get you run out of town.)

Then, after winning one of the weakest turnout primaries in the history of the Democrat party, Kerry allowed himself to be defined by the opposition while he was still doing the disastrous military parade. When he should have been clearly defining himself, he was obfuscating.

Now as the general election campaign started heating up, Kerry found himself with incredibly weak support both in general and among his base. So he has now been working hard to capture the base now with strong protest statements, when he should be running as a moderate and obfuscating his liberal record.

You follow his campaign strategy compared to how a successful campaign should be run, you you can clearly see it has been exactly backwards since day one.

---Then, after winning one of the weakest turnout primaries in the history of the Democrat party, Kerry allowed himself to be defined by the opposition while he was still doing the disastrous military parade. When he should have been clearly defining himself, he was obfuscating.---

Now he seems to be running on the Iraq war when he's not bragging about how he won the debate. However he's not running as an anti-war candidate, but on the preposterous notion that he could do a better job carrying out George Bush's policies!

Bush by 10 points.

As for following the candidate's appearances, the next debate is Wed Oct 13, so appearances will be fewer over the next few days.

After Wednesday's debate, the campaign's will take another look at their schedules. At that point, there'll only be 2 1/2 weeks before election day.

Are you able to track advertising dollars? GOTV efforts? Relocating campaign staff?

BTW, enjoy your blog, it's in my pollblogs bookmarks.

Dear Mike,

Thanks for your kind words about my blogs. I am able to keep my eyes on all the major campaign news, and will be updating my blog whenever I see significant information. It will remain ad hoc, however, as I must rely on news services and do not have my own sources.

I will try my best to keep my eyes on advertising dollars, specific ads being run, and staff relocations. I can tell you right now that last month Kerry pulled his advertising dollars from the following states: Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona, Virginia. Ad buys are done in big chunks, as best I can gather, so there might not be news about it for awhile.

I remain very skeptical about published reports about GOTV efforts. I mentioned in my blog about reports about major efforts in the Rust Belt. The lefty 527's are talking about all the new people they have registered. However, it is in their interest to over-state their efforts. Ditto for the GOP. Any reliable stuff I find, I shall report (e.g. I'll be checking with the SOS of each swing state to get an idea of the # of registered voters...those should be counted up soon).

Best wishes,
Jay Cost

jay,

I love your blog and the inside baseball stuff it provides for political junkies like myself. I have been convinced since the race started that the "ginned up" Dem base was for the most part a MSM creation. There was a very detailed study tied to primary turnout based on something like 20 years that early on predicted a Bush win. Have you done any picking apart of that study? If you're not familiar with it let me know and I'll find it for you.
Keep up the good work.

I noticed Kerry's crowds last week were very small. One appeared to be at a nursing home or sr. citizen center, with only a handful of white-haired folks in attendance.

Another was at a school--compulsory attendance by students.

Contrary to what his spinsters would have us believe, Kerry is the most unpopular presidential candidate since Walter Mondale.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.