PRE-DEBATE COMPUTER ANALYSIS 9-29!

09-29-04 | Josh in PA

[Josh in PA]

The 9/29 CAMEC Results. CAMEC (Computere Analysis Model of Electoral College) is based on a formula I've devised that takes in in all available polling data, past election results, registration trends, and other indicators, and then spits out a number of how things would turn out if the election were held today.

Last Analysis was completed on 9/19, 10 days ago, and gave Bush a 338-200 victory.

9/29 Analysis

9 EV - Alabama - Bush +20
3 EV - Alaska - Bush +26
10 EV - Arizona - Bush +11
6 EV - Arkansas - Bush +5
55 EV - California - Kerry +7
9 EV - Colorado - Bush +6
7 EV - Connecticut - Kerry +8
3 EV - Delaware - Kerry +7
3 EV - District Of Columbia - Kerry +70
27 EV - Florida - Bush +6
15 EV - Georgia - Bush +18
4 EV - Hawaii - Kerry +8
4 EV - Idaho - Bush +31
21 EV - Illinois - Kerry +8
11 EV - Indiana - Bush +17
7 EV - Iowa - Bush +4
6 EV - Kansas - Bush +23
8 EV - Kentucky - Bush +17
9 EV - Louisiana - Bush +12
4 EV - Maine - Kerry +1
10 EV - Maryland - Kerry +6
12 EV - Massachusetts - Kerry +19
17 EV - Michigan - Kerry +2
10 EV - Minnesota - Bush +2
6 EV - Mississippi - Bush +21
11 EV - Missouri - Bush +7
3 EV - Montana - Bush +23
5 EV - Nebraska - Bush +28
5 EV - Nevada - Bush +6
4 EV - New Hampshire - Bush +3
15 EV - New Jersey - Kerry +2
5 EV - New Mexico - Bush +3
31 EV - New York - Kerry +11
15 EV - North Carolina - Bush +8
3 EV - North Dakota - Bush +27
20 EV - Ohio - Bush +8
7 EV - Oklahoma - Bush +27
7 EV - Oregon - Bush +1
21 EV - Pennsylvania - Bush +1
4 EV - Rhode Island - Kerry +17
8 EV - South Carolina - Bush +16
3 EV - South Dakota - Bush +18
11 EV - Tennessee - Bush +12
34 EV - Texas - Bush +21
5 EV - Utah - Bush +39
3 EV - Vermont - Kerry +7
13 EV - Virginia - Bush +8
11 EV - Washington - Kerry +4
5 EV - West Virginia - Bush +5
10 EV - Wisconsin - Bush +7
3 EV - Wyoming - Bush +39

Bush 338 / Kerry 200

No Changes from the 9/19 Results.

[spodefly]

15 EV - Georgia - Bush +18

If not for all the yankees and fags infesting Atlanta it would be +60.

Was that politically incorrect of me?

[RobFromGa]

With ME (+4), MI (+17), NJ (+15), WA (+11) for Bush that will give him an additional +47 for a total of Bush 385, Kerry 153. That's my prediction...