Posted on 09/17/2004 10:48:51 AM PDT by Mike10542
What is the deal. Now to go along with Pew and Harris, according to the guy at wwww.electoral-vote.com, AGR now has Kerry up 48-45 nationally. I realize that Gallup is the most credible out of the four, but still, 3 showing a tie and only one showing Bush up a lot, I'm getting a little worried the race is bacl to a dead heat.
Sorry, but not "bacl" to a dead heat, but "back" to a dead heat.
Who is AGR? What is their track record? I don't believe any of these polls, to be perfectly honest.
Who's AGR? Sounds like an agricultural PAC...
Its a good thing, we do not want to be up big time in these polls, we will get over-confident. On election day we will prevail, by a wide margin. the lefties will try to protray this as a close race...it ain't.
Don't Worry we are solidly in the lead! They are sewing the numbers over the weekend. It just will not work!
Note he has Bush up 307 EVs to Kerry's 211. Doesn't wash.
its called BIAS they are doing that to try and sway undecided voters, by fake polls... trust gallop they have been around forever
Right. They got Kerry leading by 4 and Bush winning the Electoral College by 96.
What about Zogby and Rassmussen? Or Strategic Vision? Haven't heard a thing from them!
Your link takes us to a site that shows Bush with 307 electoral votes, to 211 for Kerry. So where is this Kerry lead you mention?
What is AGR?
I know I'm biased, but I'm leaning toward the two-digit lead camp for Bush. I don't know a single Democrat who hasn't conceded this race. The turnout could end up being pretty weak for the Dems.
ARG - American Research Group.
The ones showing it close are NOT consistent with the state polling being done by a variety of polling organizations. There are either serious flaws with their methodologies or they are flat out manipulating the numbers.
From Polipundit today:
As the election campaigns approach the final month and a half (46 days left), we are seeing the evolutions of each campaign; the Nader campaign apparently headed for its predicted irrelevancy, the Bush campaign settling into its message, and the Kerry campaign reprising musical chairs. The polls are, however, suddenly unable to reach a concensus. Where before they generally agreed about the closeness of the race, or gave one candidate a lead, there is now a range from a one-point lead for Senator Kerry (Harris), to a thirteen-point lead for President Bush (Gallup). It seems to me wise, then, to sort through these releases and see what is making such a difference.
I looked at twelve polls for this review: Rasmussen, Pew, Harris, InvestorBusinessDaily/ChristianScienceMonitor, Democracy Corps, Zogby, Fox/OpinionDynamics, TIME, Newsweek, USAToday/CNN/Gallup, CBS News, and the stand-alone Gallup polls (I'll use abbreviations for the longer polls from here on in) . The first thing which jumped out at me is the details included in each poll. While I pay attention to all the poll results, I have to say, I consider it important for a poll to do more than release a headline without anything to support it. Accordingly, Rasmussen, Harris, IBD, Democracy Corps, Zogby, TIME, and USA/CNN/Gallup may be set apart from the rest, because they do not provide internals. The polls without Internals, on average, favor Bush 49.0-45.0 over Kerry, while the polls with Internals favor Bush 49.6-44.0 over Kerry.
Next, consider the breakdown of respondents. The Rasmussen, IBD, Democracy Corps, Zogby, and Fox polls show only a number for "likely" voters, with no breakdown for total respondents, registered voters, or anything to tell you how they determined a voter was "likely" to make the trip to the polls. The polls which do not show the breakdown of respondents, on average, favor Bush 47.8-45.2 over Kerry, while the polls which DO show the breakdown of respondents favor Bush 50.3-44.1 over Kerry, a VERY significant difference!
None of the polls gave me everything I wanted, but the Pew, Newsweek, and Gallup polls came close. And there is some very interesting data there to be had.
Pew shows Bush and Kerry essentially tied, while Newsweek shows Bush ahead by a nice margin, and Gallup shows Bush blowing Kerry away. The Internal data gives us a look at why each poll differs:
On average, Bush leads Kerry with Men, 51.8-41.0. Pew and Newsweek show 49-43 Bush, while Gallup shows 56-40 Bush, a substantial difference.
On average, Kerry leads Bush with Women, 46.3-45.8. Pew shows 48-43 Kerry, while Gallup shows 49-47 Bush, and Newsweek shows 49-43 Bush, a wide range between the polls.
On average, Kerry leads Bush with non-Whites, 64.7-27.0. Pew shows 70-18 Kerry, while Gallup shows 63-31 Kerry, and Newsweek shows 61-32 Kerry, once again a wide disparity between the polls.
These disparities are puzzling, given the similar methodologies for the polls. One clue might be, that the Newsweek poll was taken September 9-10, the Pew poll was taken September 11-14, and the Gallup poll was taken September 13-15. Even so, another possibility suggests itself to me. Nationwide polls sound to most people, as if they are taken with equal attention to each region of the country, but I wonder now if that is the case. Even though the polls are weighted in all three of these agencies, to match the 2000 demographics (48% male, 52% female, 81% white, 19% non-white, 39% Democrat, 35% Republican, 26% Independent) Differences in region could explain a lot. Everyone knows, for instance, that a Democrat in, say, Alabama, may well be more conservative than a Republican, say, in New York.
So, it is interesting to me that in the East, Pew shows 52-35 for Kerry, while Gallup shows 52-44 for Kerry, a nine-point difference (Newsweek did not release regional demographics or response). In the Midwest, Pew shows 48-43 for Bush, while Gallup shows 51-43 for Bush, a three-point difference. In the South, Pew shows 52-40 for Bush, while Gallup shows 60-37 for Bush, an eleven-point difference. And in the West, Pew shows 51-43 for Kerry, while Gallup shows 49-48 for Bush, a nine-point difference.
The reader will believe as he chooses, of course. All in all, however, there are a few reminders which I would suggest. First, don't cherry-pick. One poll does not mean all the others are wrong, and with 46 days to go, we'll see a lot more polls before the election. Besides, if you pick one you like, how is that automatically better than the one someone else likes? The clear message from the polls, taken in total, shows Bush ahead of Kerry, and the available Internals support that conclusion. Next, consider all the available information. Democracy Corps is a polling group owned and run by people who want Kerry to win, for example. John Zogby has made statements indicating he is a Kerry supporter. Also, the Zogby and Harris polls are taken in both a phone and internet format, so be careful to note the methodology; the interactive polls may be interesting, but they have not been validated yet in even one election yet. On the other hand, Harris and Pew have been around for a long time, relative to most polls, and Gallup (not to be confused with USA Today/CNN/Gallup) has been around since 1935, and they produce deeper detail and demographics than anyone else.
Before I finish, I would like to point out a few other key points from the Internal results:
[] Republicans prefer Bush 92.8-03.8 over Kerry
[] Democrats prefer Kerry 82.6-10.4 over Bush
This means that if Democrats and Republicans vote in equal numbers, Bush has a 51.6-43.2 lead right now
[] The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll and Pew poll were the only polls to cite Veterans' preferences. Overall, Veterans support Bush 56.0-35.0 right now.
Small wonder Kerry is trying to drive that Guard service issue for all its worth. I can't help but think, however, that this could work against Kerry.
[] In Red States, Bush leads Kerry 53.3-38.3
[] In Blue States, Kerry leads Bush 50.7-36.7
[] In Swing States, Bush leads Kerry 48.7-43.7
That sounds OK for Kerry, even though he's losing overall by these numbers, until you realize that in addition to Florida and Ohio, the "swing" states in these polls include Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Oregon.
[] In these polls, Bush's average Job Approval rating is 51.3%, which traditionally means re-election.
[] Bush's "personal favorability" averages 52.3%, to Kerry's 46.1%.
I'm going to go out on a limb here, and say it looks good for President Bush, not too good for John Kerry.
Ras has Bush up by 4.
They have the 2nd most liberal bias behind Zogby. ARG usually run 3-5 points left of center and Zogby 6-7points left of center.
The guy has us up in the electoral lead, but he mentioned how ARG (American Research Group; a separate group), who is doihg polling of the 50 states, has the national poll 48-45. Usually the electoral vote trails the state, but who knows what the hell the actual national vote is at.
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