Posted on 08/15/2004 7:45:46 PM PDT by Strategerist
Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 10
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 15, 2004
if not for the government of Venezuela this probably would have been the last advisory on Earl...at least for now. The reconnaissance aircraft scheduled to investigate Earl this evening was denied access to venezuelan airspace. Had they been able to get to the storm...I doubt they would have found a closed circulation...as the Quikscat ambiguities at 22z look more like an open wave. However...there is enough doubt to keep advisories going until the next aircraft arrives tomorrow morning...and indications are that that mission will be allowed to proceed.
The initial motion is an uncertain 280/19...as Quikscat and microwave data suggest that the low-level center or wave axis may be moving out somewhat ahead of the convection. Global models are in good agreement on enhanced mid-level ridging over Florida as the trough currently over the eastern United States lifts out over the next day or two. This is expected to keep Earl...or its remnants...on a west to west-northwesterly track for much of the forecast period. Near the end of the forecast period...a more northwesterly track is possible as Earl reaches the periphery of the ridge. Model guidance so far has tended to be too far north with Earl...and the official forecast has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous track.
The cloud pattern of Earl is less impressive than it was earlier in the day...with the upper-level outflow pattern seemingly being replaced by a more uniform easterly flow...and the convection is currently meager. The rapid forward speed also continues to be a negative for intensification. The environment ahead of the system is forecast by global models to be favorable...however...and both the SHIPS and GFDL models continue to anticipate Earl becoming a hurricane. This could happen even if the system dissipates into an open wave tomorrow.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 16/0300z 12.7n 65.4w 40 kt 12hr VT 16/1200z 13.4n 68.6w 40 kt 24hr VT 17/0000z 14.3n 72.9w 45 kt 36hr VT 17/1200z 14.9n 76.5w 50 kt 48hr VT 18/0000z 15.5n 80.0w 60 kt 72hr VT 19/0000z 17.0n 85.0w 65 kt 96hr VT 20/0000z 19.0n 89.0w 60 kt...inland 120hr VT 21/0000z 21.0n 93.0w 70 kt...over water
Even Cuba allows us in now; Chavez is a monumental tool.
Any US law that outlines sanctions against Cuba should be applied to Venezuela as well. Let's see how THEY like becoming a world pariah and Third-World dictatorship. Do it now.
As long as Chavez or his henchmen are in control, they should get NO news on hurricanes from the National Hurricane Center; and if a storm were to hit Venezuela, tough luck.
Just a question, Would we allow the Venezuela Air Force ( or the Cuban Air Force) penetrate our air space to collect weather data? I'd bet not.
Does the U.S really need access to the airspace of this tinhorn president's country for any reason whatsoever?
Apparently they did need access to the air space. The U.S. asked them for access.
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