Baby Beagles

Myself

[lockeliberty]

A shopkeeper says she has two new baby beagles to show you, but she doesn't know whether they're male, female, or a pair. You tell her that you want only a male, and she telephones the fellow who's giving them a bath. "Is at least one a male?" she asks him. Yes! she informs you with a smile. What is the probability that the other one is a male?

[lockeliberty]

Since most of you got the first one wrong I'm assuming you have now learned from your mistake and can diagram the answer to this problem?

[Chancellor Palpatine]

50-50

[lockeliberty]

Chancellor, Chancellor, Chancellor. (shaking head)

Go back to 3 doors and figure out why you have made the same mistake.

[El Sordo]

I never make the same mistake twice, it's usually more like five or six times.

That being said...........

This appears to be a different question than the first.

All right, four possibilities:
Both are male
Both are female
One male, one female
One female, one male

So... If one is male, then it cannot be the f-f pair. So it's either m/m, m/f, or f/m to generate the "yes" answer from a dog washer. In only one case out of the three left is the other a male. Which is really one case out of four possibilities....

I will say 25%.

Do I win anything?

[robertpaulsen]

50-50. History cannot be taken into account.

If I toss a fair coin 5 times and I get five heads, what are the odds of tossing a head the next time? Answer: 50-50.

Now, if you asked the odds of tossing six heads in a row, the answer would be 1/64, but that's not what you asked.

[lockeliberty]

So... If one is male, then it cannot be the f-f pair. So it's either m/m, m/f, or f/m to generate the "yes" answer from a dog washer. In only one case out of the three left is the other a male. Which is really one case out of four possibilities.... I will say 25%.

We almost have a winner. You have correctly diagramed the problem. However, because we already knew that one of the beagles was a male we had to throw out the f-f possibility. Thus, the probability that the other dog is male is 1/3.

[robertpaulsen]

You are correct, but it should have been phrased differently.

The odds of both dogs being male is 25%.

The odds of both dogs being male, KNOWING THAT ONE IS MALE, is indeed 1/3.

But you didn't ask for the probability of both dogs being male, just the remaining dog. Makes a difference in the phrasing.

Go back to my coin toss question in post #6.

[lockeliberty]

That would be true if I hadn't given you the additional information that one of the dogs was already male. With that additional information the odds increased from 25% to 33%.

[lockeliberty]

But you didn't ask for the probability of both dogs being male, just the remaining dog.

Yes I did. You just didn't see it.

[Senator Pardek]

Hey - I got the first one right!

[robertpaulsen]

So, additional information makes a difference?

I just flipped a fair coin. Heads or tails?

Wait! Before you answer that, I must give you some additional information. I flipped this same fair coin five times before, and it came up heads every time.

OK. Now give me your answer, armed with this additional information.

[lockeliberty]

So, additional information makes a difference? I just flipped a fair coin. Heads or tails? Wait! Before you answer that, I must give you some additional information. I flipped this same fair coin five times before, and it came up heads every time. OK. Now give me your answer, armed with this additional information.

Each coin toss is an independent event. Previous coin tosses do not effect the outcome of the next toss. However, if you had phrased your question differently I could give you a probability of what the sixth coin toss would be.

[robertpaulsen]

Then we understand each other.

[potlatch]

Since most of you got the first one wrong

Well, lets not be SNIPPY about IT!!! LOL

I'll say 50/50, I'm not in a brain racking mood tonight!

[dark_lord]

Four possibilities: m/m, m/f, f/m, f/f.

We know that "at least one is male". Therefore, eliminate the f/f possibility. This leaves m/m, m/f, f/m.

The question was "what is the chance that the other one is (also) male.".

Answer - 1/3 or about 33%. The m/m pair. Other two pairs are m/f and f/m.

[Jeff Chandler]

Well, lets not be SNIPPY about IT!!!

Wow! How did you know that the other dog's name was Snippy ? What are the odds of that?

[Mr. K]

but if the other two pairs are m/f m/m or f/m you have already eliminated f/m, for the same reason you found out it can't be f/f

(the one you have is male, so you can eliminate f/f but you can ALSO eliminate the f/m option, if you are pairing them in order -i.e. the first one you pick up is #1)

so...if the first one ytou pick up is male you have eliminated BOTH f/f and f/m leaving m/m or m/f

or

FIFTY PERCENT

[Mr. K]

so... am I right?

[lockeliberty]

No

Where was it said this was dog #1?

**** "Is at least one a male?"****