[campaignPete R-CT]

DEMS in 1853, 158 seats or 67%, opposition was 32% Whigs, split on slavery

DEMS in 1859, 82 seats or ~35%, opposition was 55% Republican, united on slavery

Looks like their power was slipping away.

[BroJoeK]

campaignPete R-CT: "DEMS in 1859, 82 seats or ~35%, opposition was 55% Republican, united on slavery.
Looks like their power was slipping away."

Of course, but even in 1859 Republicans in the House of Representatives were not the majority, and skillful Democrat diplomacy could still form coalitions to block their most "radical" efforts.

Further, in 1859 Southern Democrats still dominated the Senate, the Supreme Court, the President's cabinet and their Dough-faced Northern Democrat President Buchanan himself.

So the Slave Power's power was still vastly in excess of their population.
Remember, in rough round numbers:

• The eleven states of the Confederacy had a white population of five million, with four million slaves, who of course could not vote but were nevertheless counted as 3/5 for election purposes.

• Union states and territories had 22 million free citizens -- more than four to one over white Confederates and nearly three to one counting 3/5 of slaves.

• Even within the Confederacy, huge numbers did not own slaves and did not necessarily sympathize with secessionists.
  So slave-owners were a minority of Southerners, who were a small minority of citizens.

• And yet through their usual majority Democrat party, the Slave Power disproportionately dominated US politics from the beginning of the Republic until it seceded in 1861.

Obviously, for such a small minority to be so dominant for so long required huge political skills -- crafts of negotiation, compromise and deal making -- proficiencies which Southerners developed and exercised to a high art form.

These skills served Southern Democrats well, even when, from time to time, Federalists or Whigs temporarily rose to the majority.
In the end the Slave Power got what it wanted, especially including historically low tariffs, the Compromise of 1850, in which the Federal Government took direct responsibility for enforcing Fugitive Slave laws, and the Supreme Court's 1857 Dred Scot decision which, in effect, made slavery legal in all states.

Yes, rising Republican popularity presented a significant challenge, but this was well contained in the presidential election of 1856, and could be again in 1860, if Democrats played their cards right.

But in early 1860, after 70+ years of dominating the Republic's poker match, the Slave Power threw in its cards, kicked over the table and began shooting up the joint.
Why?

The answer is Fire Eaters, and that's enough for this post.

:-)