I should have laid out some parameters to begin with. For the sake of arguement, let's assume the Confederacy won their independence on the battlefield and that for the most part the rest of history remained constant. In that scenarion the Great Depression still happens. Some of the strongest supporters of FDRs policies came from the South. Men like Huey Long, LBJ, Sam Rayburn, all went for the Democrats New Deal plans hook, line, and sinker. What's to say that given the economic conditions an FDR election wouldn't have been matched by a Huey Long election? Under those circumstances one could easily see the Confederacy with many of the same kind of programs the U.S. implemented. And with the strong president-weak judiciary precedent set by Jefferson Davis then it's possible that the excesses could have been even worse, couldn't it?
Southern victory in the War of Northern Aggression would have had much different results than the linear conclusions that you are attempting to draw.
First of all, States Rights would have been cast in stone as with the right to secede thereby ensuring that politicians, such as disHonest Abe, FDR and Obama, would give considerable pause before treading on the rights of the people of the various states.
Second, the South, decimated by The War, would not have been further decimated by that atrocity called Reconstruction.
Third, you can't assume that the South, a mostly agrian nation, would have suffered through a depression.
Fourth, and most importantly, Southerners are different than yankees and all you need to do is look a red state/blue state map from the last several elections to see it. We were conservative then, we're conservative now.
Fifth, we would have had to remain constantly vigilant against subsequent invasion(s) from the north, meaning that we would have kept a strong standing army and navy and that every household would be armed to the teeth (kinda like they are now).
End the occupation!
Free Dixie!!
You ask questions that are impossible to answer. IMPOSSIBLE!