Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
FOTFLOL!
It's the gay interior decorator color chart! What are you guys drinking!!!
There is no discussion. I live in Red State America and am very active politically. Social conservatives pushed the pendulum too far right and it is swinging back or we will keep losing. Most voters do not put social issues ahead of national security and at the state level infrastructure.
Diet Coke and bottled water.
If I were in the Rudy camp I'd be much more concerned about the USA Today survey that determined 80% of Republican voters are unaware that he is pro-abortion and pro-gay civil unions. As of now Rudy is all image and I'll be interested to see what happens when that 80-20 split turns around.
I'm sure Hillary's team will have a lot more than some photos of Rudy in drag to work with. Just today I came across an article about Rudy appointing a political crony of one of his allies in Albany to run Jacobi Hospital. He was forced to resign when word got out that he had previously been dismissed from the same hospital for mismanagement and he had written a character reference for a member of the Genovese crime family.
I don't oppose abortion because of religious beliefs.
I oppose abortion because I think it clearly is killing a human life. And the language used to pretend that isnt' actually the case is chillingly like the langauge used to justify murdering Jews, Slavs, Armenians, Tutsis and other "subhuman" people.
Abortion kills a million people a year. But somehow, to some folks, that is a trivial, secondary, even as they support the WOT to prevent killing Americans.
The conservative Democrats voted for Reagan because of ECONOMIC issues. Their putting food on the table was far more important than worrying about an issue that a President had very little control over. You'll notice that Roe vs Wade is still legal. Instead of straight-jacketing Republican presidential candidates, why don't work with your Congresscritter and have him introduce a Constitutional Amendment banning abortion? Funny how you guys always want to take the easy way out, as if the President has a magic wand or something.
We bring him up because he has come to represent the ugliness of part of the conservative movement.
His uncompromising stance on moral issues galls you that much.
Yes; maybe in your world, throwing your daughter out of the house is quite moral, but not in mine.
And we're Keynesians too!
No, nominating someone who both cannot hold the base and gives the Clintonistas all the ammo they can fire and then some.
Bingo! That says it all!
Do you think I should do it in colors? :-)
I just felt like saying it; obviously that makes some around here run screaming from the room!
And that is a huge failing of this country on many levels.
That person is still typing away at me on that thread, BTW and you need to read it. I mean that you REALLY need to read it. I'm NOT kidding!:-(
Indeed. I agree. Factual statements aren't libel. But you knew that, right?
Thanks for proving my point!
Oh no. LOL
Pro-abort Bill Clinton vetoed PBA legislation twice and was not overridden. Pro-life George Bush signed it.
Rudy is opposed to PBA legislation. That shows right there the importance of a pro-life president.
"Please don't post to me anymore ..."
But then she did. Sad.
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