Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
Oh, I have issues with some of Hunter's votes, since I had issues with them because Bush was pushing those as well - such as with McCain-Feingold, Medicare Pharma benefits and other such nonsense. Hunter needs to explain those.
Now, I AM curious whether you were critical of Bush's positions when Hunter voted for them. Or is this just situational ethics.
Rudy & Romney have solid conservative records that make them viable. Yes, they have a history of social liberalism, but who cares, right? When your taxes are cut and gov't is out of your life, don't you think people will have less abortions, less likely to "marry" someone of the same sex, and will be more productive? The election dynamics have totally changed. A social conservative, running solely on social issues, is not going to win. It's as simple as that.
Which Democrat do you think will be elected president?
Quite frankly, I've seen very few college towns that are representative of red state America.
Hunter couldn't have simply voted against them?
ROFL...
I'll finish reading the rest of your post when I can manage to quit laughing...
Hey, the murder rate goes down as well.
Doesn't mean that murder should be legal.
LOL! Shhhh! Don't tell EV! He thinks I'm pushing Romney.
Seriously, I'm not pushing Rudy (or Romney). I'm defending Red America from the despicable characterization you're giving us.
Red America is not afraid of a man in a dress, especially one doing it to raise funds for victims of 911, even at a gay function.
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I don't know, but I doubt it will be Rudy McRomney. /s
Like I said, I have issues with Hunter voting for them.
But most of the Hunter critics I see on FR did NOT have a problem with those votes at the time.
Which means their criticism of Hunter now carries a slight whiff of hypocrisy.
Cute.
What on earth do you mean, 40 percent?
That's why I always smile and thank them. We always go in twos when door knocking. We went down to Altus for a special election and parts of there we refused to door knock. It is a small town while here in Norman which has 100,000, I am not afraid to knock in any part of town.
And FYI....it was also ILLEGAL, but that hasn't ever stopped Kerry.
OTOG, All of the pictures of Rudy in costume, which Kerry was NOT in, were taken when he was MAYOR and long before this upcoming primary season.
Just WHY are you so obsessed by by this, that you have to lie about it and talk about every single day?
You and the others who do this stuff may feel good about doing it, but it is driving FREEPERS, in massive numbers, into Rudy's camp. I know that this is not your intention, but AFAIAC, the more you do it, the more of a proRudy site FR is becoming and so, I now welcome it.
Yeah, Reagan won in 1980 because abortion was far more important than high gas prices, taxes, or Iran making us look like chumps.
Get real...
I lived in Red America.
If Rudy were anti-abortion and not so pro-East-Coast-Liberal on so many issues, you might have a point. But he is, so you don't.
Who'd thunk that Hunter was going to run for President?
Even I didn't know who Duncan Hunter was until he announced back in October. Seriously.
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