American Idol 2006--Live Thread (Part III)

Fox ^ | 5-8-06

[Wyatt's Torch]

This morning the story has been 1 "coronation" song of which there are two: one for each contestant. And 2 of their choice: could be two previously performed or one previously performed and one new. That is where "Geogia" comes in.

As far as condensing, the vocals are great in their own right. Yes, the harmonica and guitar make it special but he'll be just fine if he simply sits with an acoustic guitar accompianist.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Bare matress, Gibson guitar, three harmonica's and a microphone. Sounds about right to me....;-)

[Nea Wood]

Taylor is making himself difficult because he seems to be fighting against the song they're asking him to sing...

Good for him! This is a very good sign, IMO, as to what sort of artist he's going to be, and what kind of musical integrity he is going to have. Go Tay!

[SirLinksalot]

REGARDING ....

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but I honestly think Kat has a 75% chance of winning next week. Don't be shocked when it happens.

Agreed.

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MY COMMENT FOLLOWS....

If you read the USA TODAY interview (see POST #6275), you will see the difference between Taylor and Kat as to why they joined this gruelling competition in the first place.

Taylor says this ...

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I do have a laidback nature, but you have to be a go-getter in this business. You can't let opportunities pass you by and if they don't come to you, you have to go to them. That's my mindset as far as being an entertainer is concerned."


What is he looking forward to most about the tour?

"The bus."

Having a tour bus was something he dreamed of as he traveled around playing clubs before Idol. After his run with Idol is over, he plans to continue pursuing that dream.
I'll probably live on my tour bus… I might have some little lake place somewhere where I can sit on a porch and stare at some trees and water. But as far as what I've always wanted to do — is be on a bus. My home has been the road, even before American Idol. My Birmingham apartment has been there, but I've been only there for a few days and I'm on the road. A tour bus with some good cold iceberg lettuce, that's where I'll stay."

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Here is what Kat said on the other hand :

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I would love to do film. Before American Idol, that's kind of what I was pursuing. I had an agent and I was going out for television and film every day like every other actress. Now it's cool but I have doors open — I'm hoping that doors will open for me. I took acting very seriously. I was going to school for theater, majoring in musical theater in college so obviously Broadway would be something I'd like to put on my resume some day."

And she says she "love to have" a career like Kelly Clarkson's.

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For me the difference could not be starker.

TAYLOR LOVES MUSIC FOR ITS OWN SAKE AND LOVES WHAT HE DOES FOR THE PURE JOY OF DOING IT. HE ALSO SAYS IN ANOTHER INTERVIEW THAT EVEN IF HE DOES NOT WIN, HE STILL WANTS TO DO THIS FOR THE REST OF HIS LIFE ( NOTE: he and his dad argued about this many times ).

KAT IS DOING THIS AS A STEPPING STONE TO BECOMING THE NEXT JULIA ROBERTS OR CATHERINE ZETA JONES ( and there is a slight resemblance INHO).

YOU TELL ME BASED ON THIS WHO DESERVES THE TITLE...

[maggief]

Story and webcam pics here:

http://www.jossip.com/gossip/clay-aiken/

[maggief]

Not a site I visit ... found the reference here:

http://www.postchronicle.com/news/entertainment/tittletattle/article_21219647.shtml

[SirLinksalot]

According to various blog sites....

Elliott Yamin will be performing with the lovely and talented Mary J. Blige on Wednesday's finale.

[SirLinksalot]

HERE IS AN ARTICLE FROM JILLIAN KURAS, WHO HAS BEEN DOING THE WEEKLY AI RECAP FOR REALITY TV CALENDAR ( NOTE : I HAVE NOTICE THAT TAYLOR's KIND OF MUSIC WAS NEVER HER STYLE AND SHE NEVER GOT TAYLOR IN THE FIRST PLACE )...

SHE BELIEVES THAT POST-IDOL, NEITHER TAYLOR NOR KAT WILL SELL AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS WINNERS.

WHICH BRINGS ME TO MY NEXT COMMENT --- IF IT IS TRUE THAT TAYLOR's ORIGINAL, UNMARKETED, UNPROMOTED, INDEPENDENTLY LABELED CD, UNDER THE RADAR HAS SOLD CLOSE TO 600,000 UNITS ( NOTE TO Netizen, I STILL CAN'T FIND OUT IF THE FIGURES ARE CORRECT), WHAT MAKES MS. KURAS THINK THAT THE TITLE, AT LEAST A MILLION FANS AND HEAVY PROMOTION WON'T SELL 5 TIMES THAT MUCH ?

ON TO THE ARTICLE....

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http://realitytvcalendar.com/recaps/ai5/commentary/jk-ai5-05-22-06-p1.html

American Idol: Predicting How The Winner Will Do

Commentary By Jillian Kuras
May 22, 2006

The American Idol finale is finally here! Even though this finale isn't the one I would have liked to see, I am anticipating an entertaining and drama filled show. I've been thinking of possible scenarios and what would happen depending on who wins. Here is what I've come up with so far.


If Taylor wins I think his single will sell relatively well and his 1st album will sell alright. Much like Fantasia and Ruben, I think Taylor's fan base is very limited but dedicated. He appeals to a certain audience and I think his album will reflect that. His music will never be mainstream/radio play music. I think his popularity and appeal will start to fade once the next season of AI starts (much like Ruben).

If Kat comes in second I unfortunately think we will have a repeat of Diana Degarmo- huge talent but not supported by the show once it's over. Her single will sell decent but there's a good chance her album will flop. Especially, like I said, if the show writes her off as they did with Diana. She will probably then move on to movies/TV/Broadway and have more success.

If Katharine wins, I think her single and album will do fairly well. Not as good as Kelly and Carrie but a lot better than if she finishes second. She has much more of a pop/mainstream sound and I think she will get much more radio play than Taylor. Winning would also help her TV/movie/Broadway career and I think she will be successful blending that with her music career.

If Taylor comes in second I think the outcome will be similar to if he wins. His dedicated voting fan base will support him at first but most likely it will start to fade when the next season starts. No matter what, I really don't see Taylor (or Kat for that matter) becoming as successful as Kelly, Carrie or even Clay.

So if the producers/judges were smart, they would pull for a Kat win. We all know though that they care about show ratings much more than how the contestants do in the real world once the show is over. So having said that, I expect them to give Taylor great reviews next week no matter how he does, and I expect Kat to get good reviews on one possibly two songs and bad reviews on at least one (again, no matter how she does).

Also, I expect the final outcome to be close. Even though Ryan never announced the final results of Diana vs. Fantasia, they were really close (about a 1% difference). They wanted America to think that Fantasia ran away with the title. There are so many people though that wait to watch the show until the finale which is why numbers were much higher this past week in terms of both ratings and voting. And the people I know who just starting watching within the past week or two all say the same thing; they can't believe Taylor has made it this far.

Taylor had a big fan base right from the start and they've obviously supported him well throughout the show. But in terms of NEW fans, I think Kat will pick up more this week than Taylor will. Most people who see Taylor for the first time are confused as to who he is and why he's so popular

I also think that Taylor appeals to an older crowd. That of course is not a bad thing at all but when you consider who supports the CD sales business (mainly teens and young adults) that could also result in lower CD sales for Taylor.


For example, my mom loves Taylor and has all season. She only voted once or twice throughout the season, last week being one of those times. She's watched American Idol since the end of season one and has voted every year (usually only around finale time). However, she has never actually bought a CD made by an AI finalist. I have bought her a few as gifts and she has borrowed ones that I have bought. However, she has never actually gone out and supported the contestants she has voted for by buying their CDs. I have a feeling this is what could happen with Taylor.

Kat on the other hand seems to appeal to the younger CD buying generation. If she wins, I think her album will sell better than Taylor's album if he wins.

At any rate, the finale is Wednesday and I think this will be one of the most watched finales of the show which of course will translate to more votes. I will have to wait and see what happens the night of the performance show before I an accurately make a prediction as to who will win.

If Taylor has 3 good songs (with 3 positive comments from the judges) I think he will win regardless of what Katharine does. If Katharine has 3 good songs (with good comments) and Taylor falters slightly, I think Kat has a better chance at winning. If they both have at least one bad song with bad comments (as Diana and Fantasia did in their finale) I think Taylor will still win.

See you all on Tuesday!


Jillian Kuras is a 23 year old dance instructor and nanny from Massachusetts. Other than reality TV, she enjoys The OC, Gilmore Girls, Lost, everything Harry Potter and of course, the Boston Red Sox. She can emailed at Jillian@RealityTVCalendar.com

[SirLinksalot]

THE CHRIS DAUGHTRY LOVE IS STILL THERE FROM SIMON COWELL

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http://www.realitytvmagazine.com/blog/2006/05/simon_cowell_sa.html

Simon Cowell Says He Would Bring Back Chris Daughtry And Eliminate One Of The Other American Idol Finalist

Simon Cowell Says He Would Bring Back Chris Daughtry And Eliminate One Of The Other American Idol Finalist
Internet message board are blazing about some comments made by Simon Cowell and Randy Jackson that appear in videos that can be viewed on the KFOX-TV website. While several of the videos have proved very controversial, one of the clips generating the most water-cooler buzz is when Simon and Randy were asked about the public’s reaction to Chris Daughtry’s elimination.

Chris Daughtry was of course eliminated in one of the biggest American Idol shockers ever. Daughtry fans immediately turned to the Internet to express their outrage over his elimination. Various conspiracy theories ranging from the show being fake to Daughtry’s phone lines being redirected to give votes to another finalist in the competition circulated. After petitions and boycott threats, the furor over Daughtry’s elimination had been dying down, but Simon and Randy’s comments are riling things up again.

Simon Cowell replied “Well, you know, you would think it was us who voted him off, you know, we were kind of like supporting him, and the public didn’t put him through, so public, you know, they control this show.” Randy Jackson interjected “But a lot of people thought he was safe, you know.” Then, Simon Cowell added “If we had our way, we would bring him back, and then we would say to one of the finalist next week that it was a joke, you’re not in the final. Good news and bad news, the bad news is you’re not here, the good news is you’ve got a seat in the audience.”

In actuality, there is both bad news and good news for Chris Daughtry fans for the American Idol finale. The bad news is that despite Simon and Randy’s comments there is little chance that Chris Daughtry will be returning to compete on American Idol. However, the good news is that Chris Daughtry will be returning for the American Idol finale show. All of the finalists usually return for the finale, and it is rumored that Chris Daughtry will be performing with the band Live.

[SirLinksalot]

Netizen,

I just got this from a different board ( Graycharles.com, see here :

http://www.graycharles.com/index.php/2006/05/22/monday-speculation-is-it-hot-in-here-or-is-it-just-me/

POST NUMBER 103...

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**** NEWFLASH….Just on Rick & Bubba.... ******

UNDER THE RADAR has gone GOLD!!!

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GOLD MEANS AT LEAST 500,000 UNITS in sales.

AMAZING CONSIDERING HIS ALBUM WAS :

1) NOT PROMOTED.
2) INDEPENDENTLY LABELED.
3) NOT MARKETED BY ANY ESTABLISHED OUTLET.

One can only imagine how his sales will do with heavy promotion !

[GraniteStateConservative]

There's this one, too. It makes me laugh when I look at it.

I'd find it funny even if I were some hot and heavy Taylor fan, but that's just my sense of humor, maybe. My apologies to those with delicate sensibilities.

[Apple Blossom]

Kat is a big healthy girl, and voluptous like the screen idols of the fifties--Jayne Mansfield, Marilyn Monroe, Jane Russell, and Dagmar of TV fame.

There is nothing BIG about Katherine McPhee. Yes, Jayne Mansfield, Marilyn Monroe, Jane Russell, were very curvy ladies, around a size 12 or 14. There is no way Kat is a size 12! She's way too skinny for that. Yes, she's curvy, but not as big as you think. I'd be surprised if she was a size 8! Paris had a bigger butt than Kat does.

[merry10]

She is a big girl...she has big features. I don't agree she is fat, but put her up next to the guys! She dwarfs Seacrest!

[grania]

Yes, the harmonica and guitar make it special but he'll be just fine if he simply sits with an acoustic guitar accompianist.

This really baffles me. Once the contest gets to the top eight or so, it would be so much more interesting and valid if they could play instruments and sing some of their original material.

We already know they can sing at that point. It would be nice to get the total package at that point.

[SirLinksalot]

EDIT TO ADD REGARDING Taylor Hick's supposedly 600K sales figure.

The “gold” rumor like the “platinum” rumor, after some thought, does not sound realistic to me folks.

I hear that it was from an email that Ric & Bubba read on the radio, but this hasn’t been confirmed at all.

It’s looks almost an impossibility from the sales of 1 store in the whole county. Bo Bice's CD just went past gold after 6 months on the market and is just on its way to platinum ( as per Clive davis).

Taylor’s next CD will probably go multi-platinum, but wait until Laser’s Edge releases the real sales figures for UTR before celebrating.

On the other hand, I’m guessing that the actual numbers of UTR sold will have made Taylor a hefty sum, and that his dream of a couch, truck & trailer definitely has been surpassed. It’s home-on-the-lake territory now.

How do I calculate that ? It is an estimate based on his number of fans and those who said they bought his CD ( as I did ). Assuming that he gets close to 40% of the cut ( which is usually the case in a self-produced label ), he's got a tidy sum folks. Nope, he ain't as rich as Paula Abdul ( yet), but it is an indicator of how much he can potentially make given competent promotion.

[Palladin]

My daughter is a fashion designer. She tells me the whole sizing system has changed since the fifties and sixties. Jayne, Marilyn, and Jane would all be size 8's today.

When a woman tells you she is a size one--that equates with a size 9 back in 1945.

I know, I am old. So sue me.

[retrokitten]

Yes, Jayne Mansfield, Marilyn Monroe, Jane Russell, were very curvy ladies, around a size 12 or 14.

I completely agree with you that Katherine is not big at all and there is absolutely nothing wrong with her body; however, the Marilyn Monroe wore a size 12 thing is not completely accurate. A size 12 or 14 in the 50's/60's was very, very different then a size 12/14 of today. Check out this from snopes.com.

So, what can we say with any certainty? We can at least establish a range of measurements for Marilyn Monroe based on the available sources:

Height: 5 feet, 5½ inches
Weight: 118-140 pounds
Bust: 35-37 inches
Waist: 22-23 inches
Hips: 35-36 inches
Bra size: 36D

My mom is 5' 3" and was 115 pounds in 1965/66 and wore a size 10. Jane Russell and Jayne Mansfield were bigger ladies (bigger then typical starlets of their day in height and build), though. Jane Russell is much taller then Marilyn in Gentlemen Prefer Blondes. By today's standards both the Janes would be told to drop 30 pounds, but were total pinups back then.

It's so weird, because those curvy ladies are the ones who set the mens tongues wagging. But try and find one on TV or the movies and she's the fat best girlfriend.

[Palladin]

She has a large frame...she would be great as the new Xena, Warrior Babe.

I see she's of Scotch ancestry. Celtic women, who led armies, were known for their outstanding physiques, as well as their courage.

There's nothing wrong with being big and voluptuous. It's our modern age and modern media who have made it a sin.

[TonyWpi]

Personally, I prefer the 50's "curvy" girls to the eating disorderly girls of today. But it's good to see that curves are coming back in style. Maybe someone like Katharine could help make it a "norm."

Someone earlier posted something about there being "Kat haters" on this thread.

For the record, I (and most of the others) don't dislike or hate Kat. I like her a lot. I'm glad she made it to the finals but I would have preferred Chris to be there in her place.

I just LIKE Taylor much better. For the record, I picked the finals of "McPhee vs. the gray haired dude" from day one.

[retrokitten]

There's nothing wrong with being big and voluptuous. It's our modern age and modern media who have made it a sin.

Exactly! Look at the reaction she is getting from men nationwide. They practially worship her. Bring back curvy women!!