Cheers!
Well, I suppose the native thread would be this one but not sure. If it is not I will repost to the other one.
I have read the vanities to which you directed me, including this one. You make some good points but I have issues with the way you connect the dots. To me, you seem to be confusing cause with effect and trends with plans, to be looking at the macro economy when decisions are made in the micro economy.
A company president or CEO doesn’t decide to hire an Indian company to do certain work in order to increase the buying power of the Indian populace. That may be a result but that is not the reason.
The US government, or the Federal Reserve, does not sell or market their Treasury notes, etc., to China, India, etc., those countries buy them of their own accord because it is the safest place to put their money.
I, too, have had experience with the McKensey Company. It is my opinion they question the customer to determine the outcome the customer wants and then put together some impressive stats to validate it. In the case I am familiar with, over time they were 180 degrees wrong. An industry they said was headed for the bone pile instead thrived and grew. The company just was no longer a part of it. The field the company went into, the computer industry, a field that was touted by McKensey, was extremely volatile and if the company is still in business it is only by selling specialty products to the military.
They say all politics is local. Well, for sure all economic activity is local, even smaller than that. It is one on one. Trends may result from that but the trend wasn’t the plan.
Also, countries don’t trade with each other, individuals and companies do. The cumulative result may be a currency imbalance between certain countries but there is never a trade imbalance. That is why China, India, Japan, etc., buy lots of US treasury instruments with those surplus dollars. They put them back where they got them.
In my opinion, you have done a lot of good work with your sharp mind only to reach the wrong conclusions.