Posted on 01/31/2004 3:07:29 PM PST by Kevin Curry
Can conservatives win in November if Bush loses the White House? The easy answer is "No." The thinking answer is quite different. The easy answer overestimates the power of a Democrat president who must work with a Republican-controlled Congress. The thinking answer is that gridlock is often preferable to a government shifting into high gear regardless of whether a Republican or Democrat is at the wheel. And gridlock is always preferable to progressivism, whatever its form.
Liberal nanny state progressivism is a rouged tart wearing a high tight skirt standing on the street corner, who whispers "$20 for a good time." Compassionate conservative progressivism is the wholesome girl next door in a county fair booth that reads, "$20 for a kiss"–only the bargain is even worse, because the government forces you to pay, and someone else gets the good time or the kiss.
Neither form of progressivism is acceptable to a conservative who has better and more profitable things to do with his time and money.
The key to understanding why the thinking answer attaches such small value to a Bush win this November is to understand the paradox of unified control. Common sense suggests that conservatives are best served when Republicans have unified control over the two branches that write the checks, pay the bills, and write and enforce the laws: the executive and the legislative. That was the delirious hope of conservatives, including myself, who cheered in November 2000 as Bush won the White House by the narrowest of margins and the Republican Party won combined control of the Senate and the House in 2002.
But this delirious optimism has turned steadily to dark dismay as Bush recklessly and heedlessly cranked the conservative agenda hard left and smashed it into reefs of trillion-dollar Medicare entitlements, record deficit spending, incumbent criticism-stifling campaign finance reform, illegal alien amnesty-on-the-installment-plan, NEA budget increases and the like.
Where has the Republican co-captain –Congress–been as Bush has pursed this reckless course? Mostly sleeping or meekly assisting. Would a Republican Congress have tolerated these antics from a Democratic president? Absolutely not! Why has a Republican Congress tolerated and even assisted Bush to do this? Because he is a Republican and for no other reason.
Thus, the paradox of unified control: a president can most easily and effectively destroy or compromise the dominant agenda of his own party when his own party controls Congress. Bush has demonstrated the potency of this paradox more powerfully than any president in recent memory–although Clinton had his moments too, as when he supported welfare reform.
Does this mean conservatives should desire a Democrat president when Congress is controlled by Republicans? No. Conservatives should desire a consistently conservative Republican president who with grace and inspiration will lead a Republican-controlled Congress to enact reforms that will prove the clear superiority of the conservative, small government agenda by its fruits. Bush's tax cuts are a wonderful achievement, and have had a powerful stimulating effect on the economy. But imagine how much better the result if he had not set forces in motion to neutralize this achievement by getting his trillion dollar Medicare boondoggle enacted.
Ten steps forward and ten steps back is may be how Republicans dance the "compassionate conservative" foxtrot, but in the end it merely leads us back to the same sorry place we started. It is not an improvement.
When a Republican president compromises the conservative agenda and is enabled to do so by a Republican Congress too dispirited or disorganized to resist, the next best answer might well be for a Democrat to hold the White House. Nothing would steel the courage of a Republican Congress and enliven its spirit more than to face off against a Democrat bent on implementing a liberal agenda.
Any Democrat unfortunate enough to win the White House this year will face the most depressing and daunting task of any Democrat president ever to hold the office. The Iraq War will become his war, and he will be scorned and repudiated if he does not with grace, power, and dignity bring it to a satisfactory conclusion. That means he will have to conduct the war in much the same way that Bush is conducting it now–he will not have the latitude to do much else. If he conducts the war in the manner that Bush is conducting it, his own base will abandon him.
Any Democrat president will also have to choose between spending cuts or raising taxes. If he chooses the latter, he will see his support plummet as the economic recovery sputters and stalls. If he chooses the former, he will dispirit his base supporters. In either case he will strengthen the hand of the Republican controlled-Congress and see Republican strength enhanced in the Senate and House.
If SCOTUS vacancies open up, he will see his nominees scrutinized and resisted with a zeal that can only be expected and carried out by a Republican-controlled Senate Judiciary Committee that has suffered through years of kidney-punches and eye-gouging in judicial appointment hearings by a Democrat minority (it would help immensely if the spineless, Kennedy-appeasing Orrin Hatch were replaced as Committee Chair).
As his frustrations grow, his support plummets, and the Republican Party adds to its numbers in Congress, a Democrat president would be viewed as opportunistic roadkill by zealots in his own party, including and especially the ice-blooded and cruelly-scheming Hillary Clinton. In the run-up to the 2008 election Democrats would be faced with the choice of continuing to support a sure loser in the incumbent or a scheming hard-left alternative in Hillary. The blood-letting in the Democratic Party through the primary season and into the convention would be grievous and appalling, committed in plain view of the American public–who could be expected to vomit both of them out.
That would leave the field open for the Republican presidential candidate to achieve a victory of historic proportions in 2008. With greater Republican strength in Congress, the opportunity would again present itself for this nation to finally achieve the dream of implementing a real and substantial conservative agenda, of actually shrinking government in a large and meaningful way.
The key to achieving that dream, of course, is to carefully select an electable conservative for 2008 who will remain true to the conservative vision and not cause conservatism to fall victim again to the paradox of unified control.
It is not too soon to start looking for that candidate.
Well, her political position seemed to align more closely with those in her new home. I would be disappointed to see her trash FR, but...that's what people seem to have to do to be accepted there, so...not a surprise, you know?
Uh, a few things.....I'm just not sure what I can say here anymore. LOL! It seems that negative talk about the administration or the party, wont be tolerated any longer.
Sooooooo, in any event, yeah, that was good Superbowl. I missed half of it visiting with guests and playing pool, but I watch the most exciting part, the last quarter.
But this delirious optimism has turned steadily to dark dismay as Bush recklessly and heedlessly cranked the conservative agenda hard left and smashed it into reefs of trillion-dollar Medicare entitlements, record deficit spending, incumbent criticism-stifling campaign finance reform, illegal alien amnesty-on-the-installment-plan, NEA budget increases and the like."
An excellent and thought-provoking essay. Sometimes we must explore outside the political paridigm. And you have clearly articulated for many of us our expectations and unfortunately our disappointments with the Bush Administration.
This Administration in conjunction with a majority in the Senate and Congress should have aggressively stormed ahead and strongly pursued a conservative agenda. Surprisingly that had NOT happened. In fact it's retrogressed in some respects. Which direction will it follow during a second term? No one seems sure. Has irrepairible damage been done both fiscally and socially?
The crucial element of which many consider a second term for Dubya is: WILL he finally impose his (conservative) will upon the courts, and especially that of the USSC should there be a void or two in the coming four years? The verdict is not yet in, but the remaining eggs appear to be in this one basket. We HOPE so....
Whereas, we can all appreciate the job that has been done in regards to the foreign WoT and the morale of the military, domestically George W. Bush's Administration thus far has been nothing short of enigmatic -- even to the most ardent of his supporters.
Does this also mean that one cannot mention Dubya's screw-up on CFR and gutting of the 1st Ammendment? His admission that he will sign an extension of the AWB and messing with the 2nd Ammendment? His "conservative" fiscal policies? His choice of neckties when appearing on TV?
I spent twenty years of my life dealing with a personality cult in North Korea. Imagine my amusement at seeing the same methodologies being used in my own country.
Nothing could make me vote for a Democrat. Nothing. But I'll bet you consider yourself more conservative than I am.
Funny, isn't it?
Thanks for telling the rest of us what we knew all along. At least you are finally truthful! No "Conservative" would ever consider voting for John "Botox" Kerry who will most likely be the RAT candidate. He is to the left of Kennedy and here you are guessing you should vote for the Dem. Only staunch DemocRATs will support Kerry's liberal agenda -- not conservatives. All those years of disrupting and trashing President Bush and wanting us to believe you are a "principled" conservative. That was pure undulterated Crap.
Are you kidding me??
I don't think they are/were Bush haters. That sounds so Clintonesque anyway.
I think they were people that felt strongly, and were very concerned about the direction this administration is headed. As far as I know, they were not liberals/socialist/ or anti-American.
I hear ya Joe. There is a deep schism developing in the party. It's an election year. Polls are dipping—emotions are indeed running high. It has the look and feel of 1992 all over again. Well, That's Life.
To blame a large contingent of conservatives for being angry about what is transpiring in this country at the behest of the leadership is analogous to a company blaming their long-standing customers for refusing to buy a their product after they cheapened it. And so it goes.
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