Doug,
What concerns me most is that we might begin to see an infection pattern with Ebola that is now well documented in Marburg outbreaks.
1. We know that human infection with Ebola comes about through the intermediary of infected great ape carcasses.
2. The viral transmission to primates occurs in the dry season, a period when food resources become increasingly scarce. The great apes then come into competition with bat species for fruit supplies when foraging and can be infected notably by blood or by placental fluid that escapes when bats give birth. (See my post #57 from 2004)
3. The mode of contamination by Marburg virus appears to be different, however. It does not appear to need any intermediary to be pathogenic for humans, as foreseen from the data on Marburg epidemic outbreaks.
In one outbreak, which raged in the north-east of DRC in 2000, most people infected worked in a goldmine, which turned out to be the refuge for a large colony of Egyptian rousettes. During the second epidemic, in Angola, the first victims were children who had gathered fruit from trees where a large population of this species of fruit bat roosted.
4. R. aegyptiacus - Carries both antibodies and viral RNA fragments - strongly suggesting that this bat species is a non-symptom developing carrier of the Marburg virus - (i.e.) the natural reservoir.
If Ebola were to recombine in a way that gave it any of the infection abilities of its cousin Marburg - well.....
Not as far fetched as once it seemed.
MA
This was speculated years ago on the old Marburg Surveillance Thread.
Some of those species of Bat migrate seasonally, and to further complicate things, are seen locally as a delicacy.
Shedding virii in bat guano or other fluids also explains earlier connections with caves or mines and the contamination of fruit (which the bats eat). That could well be the mechanism by which the 'bushmeat' gets contaminated, but equally, a sick primate is an easier target as with any prey.
A human would have to come into contact with the virii while they were viable, which would explain the hit-and-miss character of the outbreaks. Rainy weather would tend to push the bats underground for shelter, often streams associated with caves will empty into water sources.
If all factors came together at the same time, contamination, viability, and human presence, things could click. If not, no outbreak.
Slowly the puzzle pieces are filling in the picture.
Marburg/Ebola combined, not really far-fetched as a person may think...
I actually had a dream last night, where I was talking to a class of CPR students, but it turned out they were all emerging pathogens, disguised as people, and it was Cardio-Pulmonary-Ravaging, instead of resuscitation. H5N1 was in there, along with Marburg and Ebola, and they were discussing having sex in the break (sorry!) and one of them laughed, saying his/her boss was paying for the class....
Absolutely terrifying dream. I understand that the “boss paying for the class” is state sponsored bioterror, and the rest probably has to do with some kind of combining of the other viruses.
Seriously hope it’s completely meaningless.