Shuttle Disaster, Could this have been an act of terrorism?

STS-107 "Columbia" Loss FAQ v2.0.3 ^ | Updated 7:30Pm 2/12/03 | B0b Mosley

[analyst2]

Could this have been an act of terrorism?

This, by far, was inarguably the first question on everyone's mind at the time of the mishap.

It's so far been the consensus of the sane participants in the sci.space.* hierarchy that at the extreme altitude and speed Columbia achieved during reentry, and with all the various radar tracking systems in place - including NOAA's NEXRAD as an unexpected source of tracking data following the breakup - the odds that Columbia and her crew were destroyed any act of terrorism along the lines of a SAM attack is almost on the verge of absolute nil.

So far, only two "credible" theories have come forth, both with valid reasons for being highly unlikely:

1.Air-to-Air or Surface-to-Air missile strike: As Columbia was at on approach at ~Mach 18 at an altitude of ~200,000 feet (61 km), the odds of a terrorist group such as the Taliban, Al Queda, or even North Korean or Iraqi agents gaining access to a weapon that could catch up with Columbia, much less intercept it, are astronomically small. At this time, not even the US, the Russians, or even the Chinese possess the capabilities of hitting a reentry vehicle at that speed and altitude with any probable° of success

2.Bomb planted on board by a spy: More realistic based on Occam's Razor. However, pre-launch security, which has always been high, was even tighter due both in part to post-9/11 restrictions and the presence on the crew of the first Israeli Astronaut, Ilan Ramon. Odds are almost as small of this happening as Columbia getting shot down by some sort of anti-aircraft weapon.

[Libertarianize the GOP]

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[JoJo Gunn]

Well, I don't live and breathe conspiracy theories, but NASA doesn't get a free pass, not after the Challenger cover-up.

[wysiwyg]

[analyst2]

>>What if someone fired a silenced rifle at the underside of the wing just BEFORE take-off, blowing off tiles? I doubt that anyone could dectect the impact of a rifle-shot, given that the shuttle rumbles horribly as its engines roar up.

A sniper shot would not blow off the tiles. it would put a hole in one, or even several holes. This, in fact, could probably be more damaging. There would be no way to detect the damage from the outside, and hot plasma entering the tile could start to burn the wing out from the inside.

I believe NASA already studied the effect of small holes in the leading edge tiles, according to some pdf's I saw on NASA's website. I'll dig up the link.

The purpose of this thread was to list the top two or three "really" credible theories of sabatoge, not more than that.

So in my opinion, sniper fire would replace #3 "cyber attack" as a credible theory, although it is still generating discussion in the sci.* newsgroups.

[analyst2]

Please not conspiracy... Neither I nor the Shuttle Loss FAQ discusses a conspiracy theory of who or why behind the Shuttle Disaster, just technically speaking how it could have been done *and* perhaps was NASA really taking all the precautions it could have?

[verity]

Tin Foil and Duct Tape alert!

[analyst2]

>> We do know that nearly 2000 cubic inches of foam hit the underside of the wing. Why suggest a bullet?

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/custom/space/orl-asecssmsensor13021303feb13,%5C0,1610938.story?coll=orl%2Dnews%2Dheadlines

The JSC manager said the new analysis shows that loss of the shuttle's heat-resistant thermal tiles would not
be enough to account for the temperature spike. Instead, the super-hot plasma that surrounds the shuttle during
entry would have to have found a way inside.

"The bottom line," the manager said, "is we had to have had plasma flow into the wheel well or wing cavity."

[snopercod]

Sorry, but you explanations 1, 2, & 3 just don't hold water.

Small knife in the ET TPS??? Please explain how the terrorist would get himself 215' in the air while on constant video surveillance to perform this terrorist act on the launch pad.

Tile techs. Sure the ones in Palmdale were a bunch of potheads, but the ones at KSC are not. Different culture.

Re-entering at the wrong angle??? Sure, all those people in the MOCR and the Columbia CDR and PLt just happened to be on break during re-entry, and nobody noticed...

Get a life...

[Ben Ficklin]

Was the shuttle shot down by a Tesla Howitzer?

[analyst2]

IMO, not possible. As a realtime subcontractor for a large Electo-Optical company doing SDI work, I can say the current technology is 1) not yet that powerful 2) even if it were it would not go undetected 3) the telemetry of data - failing slowly over 8 minutes, then catastrophic failure - doesn't fit with any SDI profile that I know of.

[Wolfstar]

The following is a composite photo from NASA. It shows the underside of Columbia's left wing on takeoff for its last mission. Side 1 is before the foam debris hit. Side 2 is after the foam debris hit. Although NASA said the resolution is not sharp enough for engineering analysis, to this non-engineer's eye, there is no difference in the wing before or after the foam impact. By the way, that occurred approximately 1:20 seconds after liftoff, when Columbia would already by far downrange.

[Cold Heat]

So ya don't think that some missing and damaged tiles as aresult of the foam hit, would not let the plasma burn through the shuttle skin? BTW, it hit right in front and on the wheel well cover.

[analyst2]

It is unfortunate that on the shuttle which experienced (to the best of what I can glean from the NASA website) the largest amount of foam debris was *also* the only one where one camera was knocked out and another out of focus. NASA usually has better pictures than this.

As far as the possibility of "puncturing" the tiles with a metal object, say sniper fire - it clearly wouldn't be detectable in these photos.

[analyst2]

Thermocouples raising only 10-40 degrees in a 3000 degree environment sure sounds like a small crack or penetration, more than a lost tile.

As far as I understand, NASA currently discounts the lost tile theory at lift off because it cause more catastrophic events sooner in the reentry. Any thats for another thread. Just wanted to explore some "credible" possibilities here.

[bribriagain]

"some very thick flying monkey pee/ice that sloughed off the tank and.."

I don't think you're taking this very seriously. The impact of flying monkee pee/ice could have a serious impact on the tiles.

[analyst2]

As far as I can tell, most of the wing is hollow.

Do you know if it is filled with insulation or not?

[Cold Heat]

Aluminum gets soft at 800 degrees. There are some critical tile arangements near the wheel well cover and on that cover.

Who can say with certainty that the damage, and or loss of tiles in this area are not responsible for the melt through.

NASA is re-assessing these statements.

[Cold Heat]

No, it is not.

[analyst2]

The damage clearly looks like it started ahead of the wheel well.

Now, remember what I was saying about longitudinal strength of the wing and lack of it in the web/glove?

Now look at the USAF picture

well, I blanked out the non-vertical wing support and look what I get, without the web/glove and with the landing gear door as the leading edge, and the first longitudinal member beside the door (about 1/2 way back the well, and look what I get:

(posted originally at http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/835531/posts?page=1490#1490)

[The Lake City Gar]

Shuttle Disaster, Could this have been an act of terrorism?

No.