The Players: Butch, Heidi, Jenna, Matthew, Rob
The Jury: Dave, Deena, Alex, Christy
The Losers: Ryan, Janet, Daniel, Joanna, Jeanne, Shawna, Roger
Good Morning fellow Survivor Junkies
First off, even though some here will disagree and probably flame me big time, I’ll say this now and get it over with.
In my humble opinion, Christy has no one to blame but herself.
Yes, Jenna and Heidi both excluded her from their “beautiful people alliance.”
Yes, Rob orchestrated her booting. And yes, Matt also voted her out.
But Christy was not playing the game to win. She ended up playing the game to at best, place or show. A little race track lingo there.
All she had to do was say “Yes Rob, I’ll vote against Jenna or Heidi, which ever one you want.”
Mind you, I’m not saying that she would have had to honor that statement.
After all, we all know how often Rob himself has waffled and flip-flopped on his word.
But she didn’t tell Rob what he wanted to hear, and Rob at this point in the game is calling the shots.
If she had told Rob what he wanted to hear, we might have been looking at a Butch, Matt, Christy, Heidi final four. Yes, Jenna would have gotten the boot and (I honestly believe) followed by Rob this week. But Christy, couldn’t tell Rob want he wanted to hear, so she in effect booted herself.
Now, who gets the boot tonight? Let’s look at each player shall we:
Butch. What can anybody say about Butch? He has flown so far under the radar, that at times, one has to wonder if he is still even in the game. Butch has not made any enemies that we have been allowed to see and he may very well become tonight’s “spoiler”. On the surface, it appears as if Rob and Matt are pitted against Heidi and Jenna leaving Butch as the “tie breaking/swing” vote. However, having said that, if Rob has an epiphany and realizes that he would have a hard time getting Jury votes if up against Butch, he may very well decide to push for Butch’s elimination tonight. Even so, I put Butch’s chances of surviving tonight’s Tribal Council at 80%.
Jenna. I’ll say right up front, I really dislike Jenna’s whole “Holier-Than-Thou”, “I’m better than you because I’ve got a beautiful body” attitude. But, it has got her to this point and (other than Christy) she hasn’t really made any enemies of the other players. I think tonight’s Tribal Council will be a guys against the gals, with Butch casting the deciding vote. I put Jenna’s chances of surviving tonight’s Tribal Council also at 80%.
Matt. This certifiable wack’o is starting to grow on me. If he pulls a Wigglesworth, which could very well happen, he might just end up as one of the final two and if up against Rob, would definitely walk away with the Million. However, if he makes the mistake of intentionally throwing the Immunity Challenge, like he did last week, the other players may decide to boot him tonight while they still have the chance. I put Matt’s chances of surviving tonight’s Tribal Council at 65%.
Rob. As much as I would love to see this slimeball get the boot, he is still calling the shots at this point. And let’s face it, if each of the other four players are really in this game to win the million bucks, they would have a much easier chance garnering 4 Jury votes against Rob than against any other player. Even so, I put Rob’s chances of surviving tonight’s Tribal Council at an even 50%.
Heidi. I think Heidi is the most vulnerable for tonight’s bootee. She is not much of an Immunity threat and would be an absolute fool to expect Jenna to transfer Immunity again, should Jenna be so lucky to win Immunity twice in a row. If it comes down to a “Butch tie breaker” between the guys and the gals, I put Heidi’s chances of surviving tonight’s Tribal Council at 25%.
Well there you have it. Logic dictates that Heidi will get the boot tonight and our final four will be Butch, Rob, Matt and Jenna. However, I will be as happy as a pig in slop if Rob gets the boot leaving Butch, Matt, Jenna and Heidi as the final four. Only time will tell.
Finally, since the two hour finale (followed by the cast reunion show) is this Sunday instead of next Thursday, I’ll be back sometime tomorrow with my final four predictions.
Take care,
