On AOL IM they have a link to Entertainment Weekly's Oscar predictions, giving horse race type odds for the major categories. They show PJ and Ian McKellan as slight favorites, and ABM nosing out LOTR for Best Picture (3-2 for ABM and 2-1 for LOTR). They give reasons for and against each contender in each contest, in all cases the reason against LOTR is that it is a fantasy and 'fantasies don't win'. As an example of this they cite Star Wars not winning, which makes me think that they haven't seen the movie.
They do suggest that voters may wait until the trilogy is finished to give awards. The idea that PJ is more likely to beat Opie than LOTR is to defeat ABM seems to go against most other commentary I have heard. Oh well, about thirteen and a half hours to go!