I don't have any faith in the Academy. (I know I'm going to get flamed for this.) If LOTR does well in the Oscars,that would mean that the Academy and I might actually agree on something...and that scares me. :)
Paul McCartney has a best original song "Vanilla Skies" so he'll win because the Academy always votes for the rock icon. Bob Dylan? Come on!
Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Picture will all go to Beautful Mind. Robert Altman may sneak in for Gosford Park.
I think Lord of the Rings is hands-down the best picture... on the strength of the acting job that Jackson got out of his principle actors. Wow! But, Jackson has committed an unpardonable crime. He was both successful and excellent. Ask Spielberg! It took him making Shindler's List to force the Academy to give him what he should have had for Jaws, Raiders, and ET. Best Director and Best Picture. (I would have given him Best Director for ET on the strength of the children... it takes a great Director to wrangle that out of children consistently.)
But the Academy may do the right thing and give Jackson and LOTR what it deserves... (and I will stand up and give the Academy a standing ovation if they do)
I doubt it. I am setting myself up for disapointment because I hope they sweep, but I predict that FoTR will not get the awards we would like to see it get. There are logical reasons why they should not let FoTR sweep this time. They can't. They have two more years after this one for movies that have all the promise of being just as high in quality as this one. They are not going to let LoTR and a small film company dominate all the major awards for three whole years and they have to worry about precedent.
Prediction: (write this down)
McKellan wins, and maybe three other more minor awards like song or technical awards. Against all hope, I don't think they will get Director or Picture, although a higher chance for director than picture.
In the next two years, we will see Actor or Supporting Actor nominations for both Elijah Wood and Viggo Mortenson.
I bet they award the whole effort most heavily in the third year.