Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in four polls, but neither bloc secures Knesset majority

With just nine days left until the election, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party has maintained a consistent lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud in four recent election polls, but neither political bloc comes close to securing the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, according to surveys published by Maariv, Channel 13, Kan News, and Channel 12.

The four surveys paint an almost identical picture: the Zionist opposition averages 51.25 seats, compared with 51 for Netanyahu's bloc, a virtual tie that leaves the Arab parties and smaller factions hovering around the electoral threshold in key positions ahead of election day.

The Maariv poll shows the Arab parties each gained one seat over the past week, bringing their combined total to 14 seats. By contrast, Likud has lost two seats, falling to just 18. Despite Likud's two-seat decline, the coalition bloc loses only one seat, dropping to 51. This follows United Torah Judaism's gain of one seat, bringing it to eight, and People of Israel’s success in crossing the electoral threshold with four seats.

However, Yisrael Beytenu also lost one seat, falling to eight, which reduced the Zionist opposition bloc to 51 and tied the two blocs. Channel 13's election poll gives Netanyahu's bloc just 51 seats, compared with 55 in the previous survey. Likud dropped two seats to 18, while Eisenkot's Yashar party maintained its lead with 20 seats.

Eisenkot's bloc remains unchanged at 50 seats. The Arab parties, which are not affiliated with either bloc, receive a combined 15 seats. A poll published by KAN News showed that Eisenkot's Yashar party continued to lead Netanyahu's Likud, although the distribution of seats between the political blocs gives Netanyahu the advantage.

At the bottom of the list of parties crossing the electoral threshold are People of Israel, which receives four seats, and the joint Reservists/Economic Party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, which also received four seats. The key finding in the survey concerns the balance between the blocs. Netanyahu's bloc receives 53 seats, compared with 50 for Eisenkot's bloc, giving the political camp aligned with the prime minister a three-seat advantage.

Channel 12's poll placed Eisenkot's Yashar party in first place with 23 seats, compared with 20 for Likud under Netanyahu. Winter's People of Israel fell below the electoral threshold, receiving 1.8% of the vote. Meanwhile, the balance between the blocs remained unchanged, with 54 seats for the opposition parties, 49 for the coalition, and 13 for the Arab parties. Hendel and Zelekha's party received four seats.

The average of the four polls presented an almost symmetrical picture of the two political blocs. The opposition averages 51.25 seats, compared with 51 for Netanyahu's bloc. In other words, among the Zionist parties, neither side has a decisive advantage.

The gap widens when the Arab parties are included. They average 13.75 seats, while the Hendel-Zelekha party stood at four seats and remained outside the two-bloc division. Together, the Zionist opposition and the Arab parties average 65 seats.

Eisenkot also holds an advantage among the largest parties. Yashar averages 21.5 seats, compared with Likud's 19, while Bennett trails significantly with 12.5. The overall picture is of an extremely close election within the Zionist political camps, in which the Arab parties and smaller factions could become decisive factors.

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Saturday night, one of Netanyahu's faction called Eisenkot a monkey on television. “He’s a monkey. They took a Mizrahi-Moroccan… It’s like we can’t see reality. The emperor has no clothes.” If successful, Eisenkot would be the first Israeli PM of non-European descent. His roots are in Morocco. Jews from North Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia are called Mizrahi (vs. those of European descent, the Ashkenazi.) He served and commanded the elite Golani Division and went on the become as general the Chief of Staff of the IDF. He lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza War.

The Mizrahi tend to have a chip on their shoulder based on the historical dominance of the Ashkenazi in politics (and in commerce too.)

The "monkey" insult carries weight and might result in shrinkage in the Netanyahu alliance.

The polls indicate that there’s a clear majority who want to end draft deferments for the ultra-orthodox. Netanyahu can figure this out. After the election, first vote on a bill to phase out these deferments. Then vote on the next government and form a majority coalition with conservative parties including Bennet’s and Lieberman’s for whom continuing these deferments is a deal-breaker.

Gadi Eisenkot is VERY bad news. I see him being like Ariel Sharon, sending the army in to drag Jews from their homes in “settlements” in Judea and Samaria, and handing them over to the Arab invaders. NEVER trust an Israel ex-general. Sharon and Barak are the norm, not the exception.

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