“The diesel price increases also align with Ukraine doing drone strikes on Russian refineries.
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Blaming the diesel-price increase primarily on Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian refineries misses the much bigger factor: the war involving Iran has indeed severely disrupted the global oil and refined-fuel market.
The conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies, while refineries and petroleum infrastructure across the Gulf have also been affected.
IMPORTANT:
The EIA reports that these Middle East disruptions sharply tightened international refined-product supplies and pushed diesel refining margins higher. In fact, current market estimates indicate that the Iran-related disruption removed roughly 770,000 barrels per day of Middle Eastern diesel supply, compared with about 350,000 barrels per day of Russian supply losses over the same March–August period. That means the Iran war has been a substantially larger direct shock to global diesel availability than the Russian refinery attacks. Ukrainian strikes may have contributed to the pressure, but treating them as the main explanation ignores the far larger disruption occurring in the Middle East.
The simplest explanation is that diesel prices are being driven by a combination of tight global inventories, disrupted refining capacity, and — above all in the current period — the massive supply and transportation shock created by the Iran war.
The middle east oil shipments are almost up to normal levels. The muslim “refugees” in Europe sure seem to be making themselves welcome. Iran nuke strikes in Europe would be icing on the cake, but Trump is trying to stop that even though Europeeing politicians are trying to stop him.