[Twotone]

Actually, in one of S. Fred Singer’s books from a long time ago, he said that the more things warmed the fewer storms should happen, as it’s the clash between hot & cold systems that create problems. I don’t remember all the dynamics, but that was the gist of it.

[Merrick]

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL095774

Global ACE has significantly decreased since 1990 (Figures 1h and 4a), indicating that decreases in frequency and duration of TCs currently dominate over increases in hurricane intensity (Figure 3d). Western North Pacific ACE has significantly decreased since 1990, and South Indian Ocean ACE also decreased significantly. The North Atlantic shows the largest overall increasing trend, although it is insignificant given large year-to-year volatility.

[Merrick]

That’s right. The reasons are actually pretty straight forward. And work on many levels.

1. Weather is because of differences in temperature and humidity. A warming globe warms the poles faster than the equator - smaller differences in temperature and humidity.

2. Hurricanes need hot, humid air AND Coriolis forces to organize. In a cooler world, the water that is warm enough to spawn hurricanes (and there has to be a front - hot humid air on one side and cold are on the other) is too far south - so the Coriolis forces are took weak to drive cell organization. In a warmer world that line where warm/humid meets cool is too far north, and the Coriolis forces tear the cells apart. Through the 20th century we lived in a world that was optimized for Atlantic hurricane production. Whichever way tou tip it we’re going to see less hurricanes.