Now do 2006
“Now do 2006”
We are heading for a 2006-style result, but the underlying dynamic feels more like 1994-in-reverse.
Polling saturation means there will be no more surprise outcomes on the scale of 1994, but what was also unique about that year was Republicans winning seats they had NEVER won before (or damn near never).
In 2026 we have Democrats squawking delightedly about winning Senate seats in places like Texas and Kansas and Iowa and Ohio that are supposed to be “dark red” states. If Republicans can hold as many 3 of those 4, it’s an upset.
It’s not totally unprecedented for Democrats to win statewide in those places of course, but the way things are going — combined with supposedly-safe GOP House seats being endangered (albeit not quite at the level of the Rostenkowski upset in 1994), gives off very strong 1994 vibes. But the wrong way this time.
As far as the final shifts in the House and Senate that will take place in 2026, the 2006 data isn’t far off the mark: 2006 saw D+5 in the Senate and D+31 in the House. D+5 in the Senate this year *seems* unlikely, but perhaps not (Rats hold MI, NH, GA easily, gain NC easily, then OH and maybe TX, IA, AK).
The upcoming House disaster hopefully won’t reach D+31, but at this point D+10 appears to be an absolute floor and D+15 to D+25 is hardly impossible.
If the GOP can hold the damage to D+3 in the Senate and D+10 in the House, they’ll have done well *under the circumstances*.
Too bad the “circumstances” were largely self-inflicted.