Statistics. All very true if the math is correct, but this may not be a normal mid-term. Consider that the Democrats, who will likely take the House majority, are hell-bent on impeachment of the President. And the Senate, which hangs by a thread, will have the odious job of a trial. This would drag on through 2027, and in itself will create a great deal of uncertainty. Gridlock yes, but the fallout may have grave repercussions for the economy.
The near split in the Senate has guaranteed gridlock for some time now.