Strangling regimes with this sort of pressure has a poor record of success.
Another problem is, a new Congress in a few months may subvert any chance Trump has to finish this off. Trump MUST recognize this, but he seems to be very overconfident.
(Confidence is an interesting thing. Too little, and the consequences usually are not good. But, too much, and the consequences are often catastrophic.)
Even in the best case, IMO the mullahs & IRGC will drag Iran down to North Korea economic levels or worse, if that is what it takes to survive. They don’t give a crap about the people, and if millions die, they’ll accuse the US of causing it and 3/4 of the world (if not more) will stupidly agree.
Trump can quickly render these bastards hopelessly crippled if he’d just take out their refined products. 100 strikes, mostly with cheap ukie style drones would do the job. We might need a few bombs for a few of the import facilities, but drones will suffice for the distillation towers and major storage.
Keeping likely attempts at repairs suppressed would likely require several hundred more drones. If we don’t have the drones, hang somebody(s) for gross incompetence and horse-trade with Z-Man — I hear he wants any Patriots he can get...
Let’s see the mullahs and IRGC try to run Iran without refined products. This has no effect on oil output because Iran’s refined product supply is virtually all for internal use. Some years they even have to (net) import some.
This might be thought of as a sort of strangulation, but, it’s more like quickly putting Iran in a straight-jacket, with minimal effort needed.
Is Trump ornery enough to do it? A few months ago I’d have said “absolutely”. Now, I am not so sure.
Like I’ve said before Trump is creating conditions to allow for the regime to be taken down from within. The straits will be moot in a couple of years anyway as 70% of the oil will be shipped through underground pipelines. He’s playing the Iranians at their own game. One day he says this, the next day he says that.